The Colorado Rockies and New York Yankees continue a series this evening, and the Yankees are sizable favorites again.
That shouldn't be much of a surprise either. New York hurler Will Warren has been vulnerable this season, but he gets a favorable matchup against a strikeout-heavy team. Meanwhile, the Rockies' Tomoyuki Sugano looks tailor-made for a pummeling from the Yankees.
Here are my Rockies vs Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9.
Who will win Rockies vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (51%)
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You can pick which stat you want to isolate, but what really stands out in this matchup is the bottom 1% barrel rate and an expected ERA of 6.80. The expected ERA is particularly concerning because it suggests Sugano has been pitching poorly, and he should be putting up even worse results. New York's offense has had spurts of lifelessness, but through it all, the Yankees almost always maintained the league's top barrel rate. I expect New York to score early and often.
COVERS INTEL: Batters have posted an expected slugging percentage of .621 against Sugano's fastball, and the Yankees are one the league's best fastball-hitting teams.
Rockies vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (44%)
The Yankees' Will Warren should miss his fair share of bats against a Rockies lineup that chases and whiffs, and his changeup has been a real weapon this year (68th percentile offspeed run value). But strikeouts alone won't keep the scoring low.
Warren sits in the bottom 8% in hard-hit rate and bottom 3% in average exit velocity allowed, so the Rockies' hitters who do connect will connect hard. Pair that with all of the previously mentioned issues for Sugano on the other side, a short porch to right field at Yankee Stadium, and a New York lineup full of left-handed pull power, and I'm playing the Over for two units as well up to 10 runs.
Rockies vs Yankees home run prediction: Aaron Judge (29%)
After looking like his old self yesterday, this is the kind of matchup that could get Aaron Judge rolling. You really couldn't ask for a better pitcher matchup for Judge, who produced the highest hard-hit rate among Yankees hitters a season ago against Sugano's two primary pitches.
- ML/RL bets: 51-47, +8.00 units
- Over/Under bets: 57-40, +20.44 units
Rockies vs Yankees weather
Conditions at Yankee Stadium will be warm with winds up to 15 mph blowing out, which could increase run production.
Rockies vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Rockies 32% | Yankees 69%
- Run line: Rockies +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Rockies vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have covered the run line in 28 of their last 50 games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rockies vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
| Rockies starting pitcher | Tomoyuki Sugano (12-8, 5.20 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (4-4, 2.73 ERA) |
Rockies vs Yankees latest injuries
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