The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers meet in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the second time in three years.
Toronto has home-ice advantage in the series, but the Panthers enter as the clear favorites as the defending Cup champions. The Cats defeated Toronto in five games two seasons ago, but my NHL picks believe the Leafs are poised to put up a better fight this time.
All odds courtesy of SIA.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs series odds
 Panthers |
Market |  Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| -185 | To win | +150 |
| -1.5 (+115) | Handicap | +1.5 (-135) |
| Over (-190) | Total games (5.5) | Under (+155) |
The bookmakers expect a back-and-forth series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers here, with the Over at 5.5 games heavily favored at -190 and Toronto +1.5 on the spread priced at -135.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs series preview
Statistical breakdown
The Leafs and Panthers met four times this season, with Florida going 3-1 and a +6 goal differential in those games — enjoying a heavy advantage on special teams.
Will that success carry over into this series?
The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators in six games, despite having the lowest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (1.99 xG/60). However, Toronto limited Ottawa to the second-lowest xG/60 with top-tier defence and solid goaltending from Anthony Stolarz.
Winning low-event games is necessary in the playoffs, and Toronto proved capable of doing just that in the opening round.
As for the Panthers, they were in a physical battle against their in-state rival, the Tampa Bay Lightning, beating the Bolts in five games. It was a much higher-scoring series than Toronto/Ottawa, but the underlying numbers suggested it was fairly low event as well, with a combined xG per game of 4.64 at 5-on-5.
Both teams are expected to pack the middle of the ice and take away scoring chances, making it imperative to finish on the few opportunities each team will get throughout the series.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs series props
Panthers vs Maple Leafs correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 |
Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers |
+750 | +450 | +350 | +425 |
| Leafs |
+2000 | +800 | +700 | +500 |
Pick: Maple Leafs to win 4-3 (+500 at SIA)
Call me crazy, but I have the Leafs defying the odds and winning this series in seven games. Toronto exorcised a lot of demons in the first round against Ottawa, and I’m starting to buy into what the team is selling.
When the Panthers defeated the Leafs two years ago, Toronto failed to score more than two goals in each of the five contests. It had a run of 13 games where it failed to put up three goals in all but one.
However, against the Sens, Toronto netted three or more goals in five of the six games, averaging 3.17 goals per game. A big reason for the scoring boom was the success on the power play, another demon that was slain in the last round. After going 1-for-21 in 2024, the Leafs' PP scored at a 23.5% clip.
In addition to scoring more, the Buds got solid goaltending from Anthony Stolarz, forechecked well, backchecked, and averaged 20.1 blocked shots per game this postseason. This is the recipe that wins hockey games in the playoffs.
Furthermore, the Panthers have played a lot of hockey over the past three years, with back-to-back trips to the Cup Final, and just exited a gruelling series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. It feels like this could come back to bite them at some point.
Perhaps it’s already getting to Sergei Bobrovsky, who had just a .901 SV% in the first round against the Bolts. Even more concerning is how low his high-danger save percentage was, posting a stop rate of .800 against top-quality chances.
The Maple Leafs will have to work harder to create more chances in this series than they did in Round 1, but there are signs of wear and tear with the Cats, and Toronto should be poised to take advantage.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs total games odds
| 4.5 games | 5.5 games | 6.5 games | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | -1000 | -190 | +200 |
| Under | +550 | +155 | -275 |
Pick: Over 5.5 games (-190 at SIA)
I’m going chalk with this pick and taking the series to go Over 5.5 games. It’s tough to beat a team four times in five games. The Leafs lost in five games two years ago, with three of the four losses decided by one goal.
Toronto has fared far better in one-goal games this season under Craig Berube, going 22-4-4 this season in such situations — the highest win percentage in the NHL.
Therefore, Toronto should be able to secure an extra win or two if this series is as tight as expected.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs top goalscorer
Pick: Wiliam Nylander (+600 at SIA)
Florida spreads the wealth and receives contributions from all over the lineup. Therefore, I’m eyeing a Maple Leafs player to lead the series.
The Panthers boast one of the best defensively responsible forward units, with two players, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, named as Selke finalists. I expect those two to get the Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies assignment, so I’ll avoid betting on the favorite here (Matthews). This should free up William Nylander to thrive against second-tier competition.
Nylander led the team in scoring this season with 45 goals. He’s also been a standout playoff performer, leading the team with 21 goals over the last three years, including a three-way tie with three goals in Round 1 against Ottawa.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs series best bet
Pick: Maple Leafs to Game 1 and to win series (+250 at SIA)
I’m going against the grain with this one by selecting the Game 1 and series underdogs to win both. The Leafs finally resemble a Cup contender with their heavy style of hockey, and should present a much bigger challenge than two years ago for the Panthers.
Toronto has home ice advantage throughout the series, which is a huge advantage due to how poorly the Panthers have played on the road this year.
Florida had a 20-19-2 record away from home with a -4 goal differential compared to its +27 differential on home ice. Moreover, Toronto’s lone win against the Cats this year came at Scotiabank Arena, winning 3-2 on the back of a 29-save performance from Stolarz.
Additionally, the Cats will be without top defenseman Aaron Ekblad for Game 1 as his two-game suspension carries over into this series. Florida went 10-14-2 without Ekblad in the lineup this season.
That’s a significant hole on Florida’s blue line that Toronto needs to exploit Monday night to score the upset, which would instantly give it better odds of winning the series.
Teams that win the first game have won the series 68% of the time. So instead of taking the Leafs to win the first game at +150, I’m doubling down on the odds and playing the long game to win the series to get it priced at +250.
