Two of the NFC’s top contenders will get after it in the Week 2 edition of Thursday Night Football with the Packers playing host to the Commanders.
Both teams come into the matchup off lopsided victories after Green Bay stomped Detroit by 14 and Washington beat the Giants by 15, notably out gaining them by 201 total yards.
Here are my early Commanders vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks for September 11.
Commanders vs Packers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early TNF spread pick: Commanders +3.5
While scoring just 21 points wasn’t incredibly impressive against the disgrace that is the New York Giants, the Washington Commanders racked up an impressive 7.0 yards per play, which was second in the league to only Baltimore through Sunday’s NFL action.
They were held back by a ridiculous 12 penalties in the game, but I think this is something they can clean up as they didn’t exactly profile as an undisciplined team last season.
I also like the momentum they built last year in big games vs. quality opponents. This started in Week 16 in a comeback win vs. the Eagles, which they followed up in the playoffs with outright wins on the road vs. both the Buccaneers and Lions.
There’s not a lot of negatives to take away from the Green Bay Packers’ Week 1 performance. The game got away from the Lions early and Green Bay was able to take advantage of a team that looked rusty and underprepared on offense.
I do expect a tight game. As a result, the hook on the 3-point spread is massive for the underdog.
Early TNF total pick: Under 48
With each defense standing out in Week 1, a think a lower-scoring game is more likely than a shootout.
Both defenses allowed fewer than four yards per play — only two other teams through action on Sunday can say the same.
The Packers will be looking to carryover a strength from last season as their defense bordered on elite at Lambeau Field, ranking in the Top 5 in both points allowed and yards per play allowed at home. This was clearly on display when they shut down last season’s top scoring offense, the Lions, in Week 1.
The Commanders’ defensive road splits from last season weren’t pretty, but perhaps as a young team with a new head coach, it’s fair to give them the benefit of the doubt. If they are indeed a serious team, that issue should improve in Year 2 under Dan Quinn.
Expect both teams to keep that clock moving as each ranked in the Top 7 in rushing play percentage last season. We saw that pattern carry over to their Week 1 matchups, so don’t be surprised if the run-heavy philosophies continue.
Commanders vs Packers odds
- Commanders vs. Packers spread: Packers -3.5
- Commanders vs. Packers moneyline: Commanders +155, Packers -185
- Commanders vs. Packers Over/Under: 48
How to watch Commanders vs Packers
- Commanders vs. Packers matchup
- Date: Thursday, September 11, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Green Bay, WI
- Venue: Lambeau Field
- TV: Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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