Nathan MacKinnon leads the NHL in shots on goal at home and powers a lethal Colorado Avalanche offense (54%).
Well-rested and angry after back-to-back losses, I'm backing MacKinnon to pile up shots in my Lightning vs. Avalanche prediction.
Read on for the full analysis of my NHL picks for Friday, Oct. 23.
Lightning vs Avalanche prediction: Avalanche moneyline
I’m on the Colorado Avalanche to 58%. The Avs are 16-2-1 following two days of rest since the beginning of last season.
That includes an 8-0 record at home, where the extra gas in the tank helps them flex their elite speed against opponents already dealing with altitude.
Colorado has the league's most efficient 5-on-5 scoring offense and will be tough for the Tampa Bay Lightning to contain.
Their defensive metrics are much worse on the road, and the potential absence of Anthony Cirelli would make the Avalanche even harder to slow.
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TOP PICK
Lightning vs Avalanche player prop: Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots
MacKinnon is a target for 4+ shots and playable to 57%.
The 2025-26 Rocket Richard winner has gone nuclear at home, recording at least four shots in 17 of his past 20 regular-season games in Colorado.
He has averaged 5.4 shots on target and 8.3 attempts per game. Elite outputs.
The Avalanche have had a couple of days off and don’t play again until Sunday night, so Jared Bednar has every reason to lean on his superstar center as the Avalanche look to get back on track and avoid falling to .500.
MacKinnon also recorded five or more shots in both meetings with the Bolts last season.
COVERS INTEL: Nathan MacKinnon leads the league in home shots on goal despite playing fewer games than all but one of the Top-30 shooters.
Lightning vs Avalanche combo
The Avalanche are scoring a league-leading 4.18 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, and will be tough for the Lightning to contain. That will be even harder at altitude against a rested Avalanche team.
Nathan MacKinnon will undoubtedly be the straw that stirs the drink for the Avs. He has averaged well over five shots on goal per game in his past 20 regular-season home dates.
He has also scored 12 goals in the last 13 games after two days of rest, the same situation he faces tonight.
Lightning vs Avalanche combo
- Colorado Avalanche moneyline
- Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots
- Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal
Lightning vs Avalanche goal scorer: Nathan MacKinnon
MacKinnon won the Rocket Richard a year ago and is off to another great start with six goals through his first 10 games.
MacKinnon is a one-man shooting gallery, generating far more volume than anybody else on the roster. He has already taken 80 shots, 30 more than the next closest teammate, Nazem Kadri.
He has scored five goals in five home games this season and will get all the ice he can handle in this measuring-stick game after two days off to rest, recover, and fill up the tank.
- Top picks: 13-11, +0.47 units
- Combos: 3-21, -7.5 units
Lightning vs Avalanche odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Lightning 47% | Avalanche 54%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (49%) | Under 6.5 (52%)
- Spread: Lightning +1.5 (68%) | Avalanche -1.5 (33%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Lightning vs Avalanche trend
The home team is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Lightning vs Avalanche
| Location | Ball Arena, Colorado |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN+, ESPN+ |
Lightning vs Avalanche latest injuries
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