Toronto is looking for vengeance tonight after coughing up a two-goal lead on Thursday; I'm riding with them at home as part of my Islanders vs. Maple Leafs predictions.
The Toronto Maple Leafs host the New York Islanders at Scotiabank Arena as 57% favorites at Novig, which is still a tad underpriced for me - let's invest.
Tap into my NHL picks for Saturday, Oct. 17, and let's build that weekend bankroll.
TOP PICK
Islanders vs Maple Leafs prediction: Maple Leafs
This is more so a pick fading the New York Islanders rather than riding the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Islanders rank 25th in expected goals for, and own one of the worst power plays in the NHL. Offense has simply been difficult to come by for the defensive-minded Islanders; I wouldn't bank on them scoring more than two goals tonight.
Meanwhile, New York continues to dig its own grave with an undisciplined brand of hockey, averaging 12.4 penalty minutes per game - the fourth-most in the NHL. If the Islanders keep handing out power-play opportunities like candy (we're close to Halloween, so this is fine), Toronto's fifth-ranked unit could have an absolute field day. With that kind of firepower on the man advantage, this one could get ugly in a hurry.
COVERS INTEL: Auston Matthews is a man possessed right now, scoring four goals in his last three games; he's the anchor of a team that ranks fifth in goals for per 60 - all the numbers point toward a Leafs win.
TOP PICK
Islanders vs Maple Leafs combo
The first play I want to run back is a Gavin McKenna point. Before his controversial benching, the rookie was starting to see a significant uptick in usage, averaging closer to 17 minutes of ice time after logging just 14 minutes earlier in the season. Now, he's in a prime bounce-back spot after Jim Hiller offered what might be the worst explanation imaginable for benching the Calder Trophy favorite midway through the second period on Thursday.
Elsewhere, I'm all over William Nylander's shots, as he's recorded three or more shots in four straight games while averaging 6.5 shot attempts per contest, the 23rd-highest mark in hockey.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs combo
- Leafs moneyline
- William Nylander 3+ shots
- Gavin McKenna 1+ assist
Islanders vs Maple Leafs player prop: William Nylander 3+ shots
I'm loving William Nylander's shot volume right now, as the Leafs winger has registered at least three shots on goal in four consecutive games. He's averaging 6.5 shot attempts per contest, the 23rd-highest mark in the NHL, giving us plenty of reason to believe his hot streak can continue.
With the Islanders playing an undisciplined brand of hockey, watch for Willy on the power play to drive us over the line.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: Auston Matthews
How can I not go with Auston Matthews after he's cashed this play for us in two straight games? He's clearly on another level now that he's healthy, and his shooting percentage (40%) is among the league's best on the man advantage. When Matthews is shooting, he's hitting twine - he has four goals across his last three games as a result.
Let's pot one more against this stingy Islanders defense.
- Top picks: 5-5, +0.13 units
- Combos: 5-4, +4.70 units
Islanders vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Islanders 45% | Maple Leafs 56%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (48%) | Under 6.5 (54%)
- Spread: Islanders +1.5 (67%) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (32%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Islanders vs Maple Leafs trend
The Over is 5-0 in the Maple Leafs' last five overall. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Islanders vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN |
Islanders vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
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