There are only two games on the schedule tonight, but I've still found value in my NHL player props.
I'm eyeing the Colorado Avalanche's franchise cornerstone to be busy offensively, while a Boston Bruins veteran will also do his part as they visit the Anaheim Ducks. I'll finish off my best bets with Beckett Sennecke, who I expect to find the back of the net once again.
Read more in my NHL picks for Friday, Oct. 16.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 SOG |
63% |
 Morgan Geekie Over 0.5 assists |
36% |
 Beckett Sennecke anytime goal |
35% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots on goal
Play up to 65%.
Nathan MacKinnon is off to a rocking start to the season with the Colorado Avalanche. His shot volume has been fantastic, already averaging over four shots on goal (SOG) per game while tallying 12 points.
The superstar has cashed the Over in two of his last three contests, putting 12 shots on target during that span. MacKinnon's underlying metrics further reinforce his high volume, as he leads Colorado by a wide margin in both unblocked shot attempts and individual shot attempts.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have struggled to suppress shots, ranking 24th in the NHL with 28.3 SOG allowed per game. With MacKinnon consistently firing the puck and needing only four shots to clear this number, I like him to deliver another high-volume performance.
- Matchup: Penguins vs Avalanche
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
- TV: ESPN+
Prop pick #2: Morgan Geekie Over 0.5 assists
Play up to 40%.
Morgan Geekie has been one of the Boston Bruins' top playmakers. He's second on the team behind only David Pastrnak with five assists in seven games, and the veteran has recorded four assists over his last three outings.
Three of his helpers have been primary assists, further highlighting his direct involvement in Boston's offense. The Bruins have also generated 74 scoring chances and 5.82 expected goals with Geekie on the ice, suggesting his minutes are consistently producing offensive opportunities.
With Geekie continuing to play a major role on Boston's top line and PP1, he'll have opportunities to notch another helper.
- Matchup: Bruins vs Ducks
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
Goal scorer pick: Beckett Sennecke
Play up to 40%.
After a phenomenal rookie season in which he scored 23 goals, Beckett Sennecke is picking up where he left off. The youngster leads the Anaheim Ducks with four goals, and found the back of the net in his most recent contest against the vulnerable Flames.
The underlying numbers back up his production. Sennecke leads the Ducks in several analytical categories, most notably individual high-danger chances and individual scoring chances.
The Bruins have been solid defensively but have struggled on the penalty kill, while the Ducks rank third in power-play percentage. With Sennecke on PP1 and seeing time on the top line as well, he should have plenty of opportunities to threaten tonight
- Matchup: Bruins vs Ducks
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Prop picks: 5-13, -6.58 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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