The Boston Bruins (52%) are small road favorites against the Anaheim Ducks as they look to put together a fourth consecutive win.
Their biggest advantage appears to be at 5-on-5, and my Bruins vs. Ducks predictions see David Pastrnak's shooting being especially impactful in that game state.
Let's dive deeper into my NHL picks for Friday, Oct. 16.
Bruins vs Ducks prediction: Bruins moneyline
I’m on the Boston Bruins to 55%.
They’re off to a strong 5-2 start and are full value for it, ranking eighth in expected goal share at 5-on-5. They’ve done this despite star defenseman Charlie McAvoy missing six of the seven games due to suspension.
They’re playing well at full strength. They’re not taking many penalties, and McAvoy’s return provides a healthy shot in the arm across all situations.
The Anaheim Ducks lack depth because of the cost-cutting required to pay Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, a key factor in their 24th place ranking in xG share.
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TOP PICK
Bruins vs Ducks player prop: David Pastrnak Over 3.5 shots
David Pastrnak is off to a strong shooting start. He’s registered at least four shots in six of seven games, only falling short against a low-event Senators team.
While Pastrnak’s volume has been consistent, it's only increased since Pavel Zacha replaced Elias Lindholm as the top-line center (Josh Inglis is stacking Pastrnak's linemates in his NHL Best Bets for Oct. 16 for this reason).
Pastrnak has averaged 3.1 more shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play with Zacha as the No. 1 pivot.
It’s a good matchup for Pastrnak. The Ducks have conceded at least 29 shots in four of six games to date and rank 21st in 5-on-5 shot suppression.
COVERS INTEL: Pastrnak is averaging 23.96 shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, good for fourth in the NHL. That will play well against a Ducks squad sitting 23rd in shot share.
Bruins vs Ducks combo
I’m backing Boston’s two best skaters, McAvoy and David Pastrnak, to play key roles in a winning effort.
McAvoy picked up a point in 64% of games last season and 80%(!) of games featuring a 6.5 total. Taking it a step further, he hit the scoresheet in 87% of his games where the Bruins were favored with a 6.5-goal total.
Pastrnak leads the Bruins in every shooting category and averaged a full shot attempt more per game last year when McAvoy was in the lineup.
McAvoy helps Boston tilt the ice and spend more time on attack, which will benefit Pasta.
Bruins vs Ducks combo
- Boston Bruins moneyline
- David Pastrnak Over 3.5 shots
- Charlie McAvoy Over 0.5 points
Bruins vs Ducks goal scorer: David Pastrnak
I like Pastrnak to pot one in Anaheim.
The veteran sniper ranks top-5 in shot attempts, shots on goal, and scoring chances during 5-on-5 play, yet he hasn’t scored in that state.
Pastrnak is an elite finisher who routinely nets 20-plus goals at 5-on-5 alone. Getting to the eighth game of the season without one, especially while generating such elite volume, is abnormal.
An added bonus is that the Ducks sit 25th in shorthanded time per game. They take a healthy chunk of penalties, offering the opportunity for Pastrnak to fire away with extra time and space on the man advantage.
Morgan Geekie could be one of Pastrnak's teammates feeding him the puck, and Quinn Allen has him tabbed for an assist as one of his favorite NHL player props tonight.
- Top picks: 6-6, -0.68 units
- Combos: 2-10, -2.00 units
Bruins vs Ducks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Bruins 52% | Ducks 49%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (47%) | Under 6.5 (51%)
- Spread: Bruins -1.5 (30%) | Ducks +1.5 (71%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Bruins vs Ducks trend
Anaheim has hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 home games. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Bruins vs Ducks
| Location | Honda Center, Anaheim, Calif. |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 16, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, FOXLA+ |
Bruins vs Ducks latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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