The Colorado Avalanche (66%) are heavily favored over the Pittsburgh Penguins in a matchup between two of the league's fastest-paced teams.
A high-event game plays perfectly into the hands of Nathan MacKinnon, and that's who I'm targeting with my top Penguins vs. Avalanche predictions for tonight.
Let's comb through my full card of NHL picks.
Penguins vs Avalanche prediction: Over 6.5
Play the Over to 56%.
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Colorado Avalanche play fast, high-event hockey, both ranking Top-8 in 5-on-5 pace.
Speed is the name of the game for these teams, and that should lead to plenty of transition opportunities and fireworks at both ends.
The Avalanche have led the NHL in scoring rate at home since the start of last season. They are miserably tough to contain, and the Penguins will have to score to keep up.
The good news is the Penguins have produced a lot of offense when rested. They scored 3+ goals in nine of their last 10 games after two days of rest, including both this year.
COVERS INTEL: Nathan MacKinnon has registered 218 shots on goal at home since the beginning of last season, 30 clear of second-place Connor McDavid.
Penguins vs Avalanche combo
I’m combining the Over with Rickard Rakell to pick up a point and Nathan MacKinnon to register at least four shots on goal.
Rakell picked up a point in 59% of his games last season and only went more than two straight without hitting the scoresheet one time. He was remarkably consistent, which is bound to be the case when riding shotgun with Sidney Crosby.
Rakell produced a point in 62% of games with 6.5 totals, and 13 of his last 18 following two days of rest.
MacKinnon has 4+ shots in three of his last four home dates against Pittsburgh, and a high-pace matchup is perfectly suited for his style.
Penguins vs Avalanche combo
- Over 6.5
- Rickard Rakell Over 0.5 points
- Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots
TOP PICK
Penguins vs Avalanche player prop: Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots
MacKinnon is a shot-on-goal machine at home, and I’m backing him for 4+ shots to 59%.
MacKinnon averaged 4.7 shots on target per game in Colorado last season while clearing this line in 70% of his games.
He has picked up where he left off at the start of the year, going Over in all four contests, averaging six shots on 10 attempts.
He faces a mouthwatering matchup against the Penguins. They rank seventh in 5-on-5 pace and 23rd in shot suppression, creating a great game environment for MacKinnon to fire away.
MacKinnon always brings his best against fellow Nova Scotian Sidney Crosby, averaging 4.4 shots on 9.6 attempts over the last eight meetings.
Penguins vs Avalanche goal scorer: Nathan MacKinnon
MacKinnon found the back of the net in exactly 50% of his games against Bottom-16 defenses last season, and has done so in three of four matchups this year.
He is averaging 10 shot attempts per game at home. That is incredibly strong volume and will lead to a lot of goals for a talented finisher, and a Rocket Richard winner! – like MacKinnon.
He is rested, and the Avalanche don’t play again until Monday, which means Jared Bednar can let him loose and give him as much ice as he can handle if the game is remotely close.
- Top picks: 6-6, -0.68 units
- Combos: 2-10, -2.00 units
Penguins vs Avalanche odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Penguins 35% | Avalanche 66%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (53%) | Under 6.5 (48%)
- Spread: Penguins +1.5 (57%) | Avalanche -1.5 (44%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Penguins vs Avalanche trend
Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 away games (+9.65 units, 33% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Penguins vs Avalanche
| Location | Ball Arena, Colo. |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 16, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ALT, KTVD, SN-PIT |
Penguins vs Avalanche latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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