Hosts Czechia and Sweden go head-to-head at the IIHF World Championship on Saturday with a trip to the final on the line. Sweden enters play with a perfect 8-0-0 record in the tournament, while Czechia comes into the contest on the heels of an impressive win against the United States in the quarterfinals.
Sweden comes in as the clear favorite at -155 thanks to exceptional goaltending and a stifling penalty kill. Find out if the Swedes can get it done against the hosts in my free picks for Czechia vs Sweden on Saturday, May 25.
Czechia vs Sweden prediction
My best bet
Under 5 goals in regulation time (-166 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Both the Czechs and Swedes skated to low-scoring wins in their quarterfinal games, with Czechia defeating USA 1-0 and Sweden outlasting Finland 2-1 in overtime. Strong defense has been a common theme for both teams throughout the tournament, which is why I like the Under on 5 goals in regulation time as my best bet.
Sweden’s Filip Gustavsson and Czechia’s Lukas Dostal are expected to go head-to-head on Saturday, with both goaltenders leading the tournament in several key stats.
Gustavsson ranks first in save percentage (.934) and goals against average (1.37) among all netminders, while Dostal ranks second (.926) and third (1.61), respectively, in those categories. Dostal also leads all goaltenders with two shutouts during the World Championship, including a 36-save clean sheet against the USA last time out.
Sweden’s defense leads all teams in the tournament with just 10 goals against in eight games, while the Tre Kronor has also yet to allow a power-play goal against.
Czechia has averaged a respectable 3.38 goals per game in the tournament but has scored a combined five goals against top competition in Finland (1-0 W), Canada (4-3 OTL), and the United States (1-0 W), so I don’t see them putting up more than one or two vs Sweden.
Czechia vs Sweden same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 5 goals
Sweden moneyline
Sweden Over 2.5 goals
I’ll stick with the favorites in this semifinal matchup as I like the Swedes to take the win while scoring Over 2.5 goals.
Along with their exceptional defense, Sweden also owns the top offense in the tournament (tied) with 37 goals in eight games.
Joel Eriksson Ek has been a big part of his nation’s success, scoring six goals in eight games, including four in his last four outings, so I expect him to lead the way offensively.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Czechia vs Sweden odds
 Czechia |
Odds | Sweden  |
|---|---|---|
| +125 | Moneyline | -155 |
| +1.5 (-230) | Spread | -1.5 (+190) |
| Over 5 (+114) | Total | Under 5 (-135) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on May 24.
Czechia vs Sweden game info
| Location: | O2 Arena, Prague, Czech Republic |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-25-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:20 a.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
