The Buffalo Sabres return from the NHL holiday break to host the Boston Bruins at KeyBank Center tonight.
The break was a welcomed one for both the Bruins and Sabres. Boston lost its last four games heading into the break while Buffalo lost three of its last four. NHL odds are favoring the road team, though, as the Bruins are favored on the moneyline.
Which team will break out of their slump? Read on for our Bruins vs. Sabres NHL picks and predictions for Wednesday, December 27.
Bruins vs Sabres odds
Bruins vs Sabres predictions
The Boston Bruins started the season as one of the best teams in the league. They won their first six games and were 9-0-1 through their first 10 contests. However, after reaching a 14-1-3 record on November 22nd, they went 5-6-3 in their next 14 games.
"We just need more concerted effort," Bruins coach Jim Montgomery said. "People (have) got to stay in the moment. They can't worry about their previous shift or worry about what's happening in five minutes. They've got to focus and reset and go out there for that next shift."
Boston still sits atop the Atlantic Division but the Maple Leafs and Panthers are picking it up as of late. However, the B’s are in a much better spot than the lowly Buffalo Sabres.
The Sabres came into this season with high expectations after barely missing out on a playoff spot last year. They’ve been struggling to reach the .500 mark and are above just the Senators — who are also massively underperforming — in the Atlantic.
The Bruins have been carried by their goaltending this season, but it’s Jeremy Swayman emerging as a Vezina Trophy odds candidate this year after Linus Ullmark won it last year. On the other side, the Sabres have a .888 save percentage as a team with Devon Levi, Ukko-Pekka Luukonen, and Eric Comrie all seeing time between the pipes.
That goaltending advantage should be important in this battle between two teams in the middle of the pack in terms of xGF%. The Bruins sit 15th at 50.31% with the Sabres just two spots lower at 49.13%.
Although Buffalo has home-ice advantage, the Sabres are just 7-8-1 at KeyBank Center this season while the Bruins have a respectable 9-5-3 record on the road.
The Bruins should be able to play Grinch and steal two points in Buffalo as the better team with the better goalie in net.
My best bet: Bruins moneyline (-150 via BetRivers)
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Bruins vs Sabres same-game parlay
Bruins moneyline
Under 6.5
David Pastrnak anytime goal
Boston has 19 wins and 13 losses on the season while Buffalo has 14 wins and 21 losses. Both teams do trend the same way for the total, however, so we’re taking the Under 6.5 as well.
The Bruins have gone 17-15-0 to the Under thus far with the Sabres at 18-16-1. A decent amount of their totals have been at 5.5 or a flat 6.0 as well, so we’re getting a little bit of wiggle room by going with 6.5.
But when the Bruins do score, Hart Trophy odds candidate David Pastrnak is in on the action quite a bit. He has 20 goals and 24 assists for 44 points in 32 games this season. He’s recorded a point on nearly half of the Bruins’ 98 goals (45%) while scoring 20% of them. Furthermore, the Czech winger has scored in 16 of 32 games so far this season.
Pastrnak scored a goal and added two assists in the Bruins’ 5-2 win in Buffalo last month but was held off the scoresheet in their 3-1 home loss earlier in December. He’s enjoyed playing against the Sabres in his career with 37 points (16 goals) in 36 games.
The Bruins should be able to play their game in Buffalo with Pastrnak getting a goal in a 3-2 type of win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bruins vs Sabres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Bruins odds opened around -150 and they haven’t moved that much. They’re as high as -155 at some books. The Sabres are +130 home underdogs after opening at +124.
The total opened at a flat 6.0 but has moved up to 6.5 at some books. You can get Over 6 (-113) and Under 6 (-105) or Over 6.5 (+106) and Under 6.5 (-130).
I would take the Bruins moneyline up to around -165. They’re the much better team and should be treated as such. The Under 6 (-105) would be my play for the total as well.
Bruins vs Sabres betting trend to know
The Bruins have hit the 1P Under in 48 of their last 88 games (+10.75 Units / 12% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Sabres.
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Bruins vs Sabres game info
| Location: | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 27, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Bruins vs Sabres latest injuries
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