Bruins vs Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Toronto Can't Be Stopped

The Bruins have owned the Maple Leafs in recent matchups, but Boston comes into tonight in a bit of a rut while Toronto's offense is on fire. With that in mind, our NHL picks are expecting the Buds to pile up the goals.

Mar 4, 2024 • 13:46 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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We’ve got six games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including an Original Six matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Boston Bruins.

Boston has owned this matchup of late, yet the NHL odds favor the Leafs at home. So will the B's win their sixth in a row against Toronto, or will the Buds' offense keep rolling and prove to be too much to handle? 

Find out in my free NHL picks for the Bruins vs. Maple Leafs on March 4.

Bruins vs Maple Leafs odds

Bruins vs Maple Leafs predictions

The Boston Bruins come into town beaten and battered with a few key injuries throughout their lineup, resulting in four losses in their last five games. 

As for the Toronto Maple Leafs, they’re riding high after an impressive win over the Rangers Saturday night which saw them register four goals on Igor Shesterkin, who was recently named the NHL’s third star of the month after posting 10 wins with a .953 SV% and a 1.71 GAA. 

The Leafs' offense has been on fire as of late, averaging a league-best 4.7 goals per game over their last 10 games while scoring at least four times in nine of those matchups. 

Typically, it’s the Auston Matthews show when the Leafs play the Bruins, as he's scored 10 goals over his last eight meetings against them. However, Toronto has lost the last five of those games due to the lack of depth scoring around him. 

Well, that hasn’t been the case recently. Toronto is getting contributions from all throughout the lineup, and I don’t expect that to stop tonight given the way Boston has been playing lately. 

The Bruins have lost seven of their last 10 games and have struggled to keep the puck out the net, giving up an average of 3.7 goals per game in that stretch with 4.66 goals allowed above expectation, according to Natural Stat Trick.

The injuries to the backend won't help either, as Hampus Lindholm and Matt Grzelcyk are both out, while top line center Pavel Zacha will be a game-time decision after leaving Saturday's game vs. the Islanders due to injury. Without these players, the B’s will have a much tougher time slowing down the Buds. 

My best bet: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (+105 at SIA)

Bruins vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay

Maple Leafs Over 3.5

Auston Matthews anytime goalscorer

Over 5.5

I think at least one of the four goals scored will come from Auston Matthews. The NHL’s leading goal getter has been scoring at will against Boston over the past few years, potting a goal in seven of the last eight games against the B’s. 

For my final leg, let’s roll with an alternate total and take the Over at 5.5 goals. The total tonight is 6.0, and buying that extra half a goal is a worthwhile wager.

I already have at least four goals accounted for with the Leafs Over 3.5 bet, so really, we’re just asking for the Bruins to get two goals to cash this thing. They should be able to do that considering they’ve scored two or more in eight of the 10 games during this poor stretch of play. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Bruins vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight as betting favorites at -130, with the Bruins getting plus money (+110) on the road. Boston has dominated this series lately, winning five games straight against the Buds. However, the Leafs are playing some elite hockey right now, winning nine of their last 10 games.

Meanwhile, the Bruins have cashed the moneyline just three times in the same stretch and are dealing with some significant injuries. I like for Toronto to buck the trend and inch closer to Boston with a win tonight. 

The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5 goals, shading towards the Under at -120, with the Over getting even money (+100). There was movement on this line overnight, as it was originally set at 6.0 goals.

The total is 1-1 in the season series, but it has gone Over the total in three of the last five games. With Boston hurting, I think the Buds get on the score sheet often. However, I’d prefer to buy down the total to 5.5 at -160 odds for added insurance. 

Bruins vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs have hit the second period moneyline in five of their last six games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Maple Leafs.

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Bruins vs Maple Leafs game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Monday, March 4, 2024
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: NESN, Sportsnet

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