Bruins vs Capitals Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

Even with Alex Ovechkin on the roster, the Washington Capitals offense has sputtered for much of the season. Facing an elite Boston Bruins defense and strong goaltender Jeremy Swayman, our betting picks don't back the home underdogs.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Apr 15, 2024 • 11:16 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Washington Capitals host the Boston Bruins in a pivotal Eastern Conference matchup tonight. Boston can clinch first place in the Atlantic Division with a win, while Washington is battling for the final wild card.

The visiting Bruins are trading as a road favorite, and they’re looking to build momentum going into the playoffs after last year’s first-round exit. Boston also topped Washington 3-2 in a shootout in their latest meeting on March 30.

Here are our free NHL picks and Bruins vs. Capitals predictions for their matchup at Capital One Arena on Monday, April 15.

Bruins vs Capitals prediction

My best bet
Capitals Under 2.5 goals (-104 at Pinnacle)

My analysis

Both the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals sport underwhelming underlying numbers and have outperformed preseason expectations. They respectively rank 25th and 26th in Corsi For percentage and 18th and 25th in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5, with the big difference being Boston’s league-high 102.9 PDO and Washington ranking 24th with a 99.5 mark.

The puck luck might turn for Boston in the postseason against a high-end team, but Washington doesn’t fit that bill, and it’s surprising the Capitals are even contending for a playoff spot this late in the year. After all, the Caps don’t even have a winning record.

Washington will also be without top-four defensemen Nick Jensen (undisclosed) and Rasmus Sandin (upper body), and the Capitals are already sliding along a 2-5-2 stretch with a minus-13 goal differential. Projected starting goaltender Charlie Lindgren has an .898 save percentage and 3.20 GAA during the skid, too.

Still, the biggest knock on the Caps is their lack of offensive talent, and they’ve only scored more than two goals once during the noted nine-game slump. Additionally, I expect Washington to struggle to exit its zone and in the transition game with both Jensen and Sandin out.

Despite the highlighted shortcomings, Boston bench boss Jim Montgomery has coached up the club, and the Bruins continue to receive top-tier goaltending. Boston allows the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.7) and ranks seventh with an 82.3 penalty-kill percentage, and I don’t anticipate Washington creating enough quality chances to score more than two goals.

Finally, it’s Jeremy Swayman’s turn to start for the Spoked Bs, and he’s been solid all season with a .915 SV%, 2.56 GAA, and 0.36 goals saved above average — all top-10 marks among regulars.

Bruins vs Capitals same-game parlay (SGP)

Bruins 3-way ML

Capitals TT Under 2.5

Charlie McAvoy 2+ shots

The case for Boston winning and the Washington Under has been laid out, and I expect the Bruins to drive the play and possession. Charlie McAvoy leads Boston defensemen in minutes per game (24:51), is the quarterback on the No. 1 power-play unit, and 57.6% of his 5-on-5 zone starts are in the offensive end.

Washington has allowed the fourth-most shot attempts to opposing defensemen, so while McAvoy has only recorded two or more shots in two of his past seven games, this is a perfect setup for an uptick in volume for the big-minute defenseman.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bruins vs Capitals odds

Bruins vs Capitals live odds

Bruins vs Capitals opening odds

  • Puck line: Boston -1.5 (+165) | Washington +1.5 (-200)
  • Moneyline: Boston -160 | Washington +135
  • Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-110) | Under 5.5 (-110)

Bruins vs Capitals moneyline and Over/Under analysis

  • There hasn’t been movement to this moneyline since opening with Bruins -160 through Sports Interaction or bet365 as of Monday morning.
  • Barring Washington opting to start backup Darcy Kuemper, I don't expect notable line movement ahead of the puck drop, either.
  • The total is a consensus of 5.5, and several sportsbooks have the same -110 vig on both the Over and Under. 

Bruins vs Capitals trend

Washington has scored two goals or fewer in eight of the past nine games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Capitals.

Bruins vs Capitals game info

Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
Date: Monday, 4-15-2024
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: NESN, Monument

Bruins vs Capitals latest injuries

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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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