My favorite NHL predictions for Friday, Oct. 9 feature some line stacks I like, and a late-night Over.
See why my free NHL picks are backing two-way scoring in Columbus, and fading the Wings and their terrible penalty kill in a letdown spot.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 / Fantilli + Knies + Novak 1+ points each |
20% |
 McMann + Stephenson 1+ points each |
24% |
 / Ducks vs. Jets Over 6.5 |
49% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Adam Fantilli + Matthew Knies + Tommy Novak 1+ points each
How about a triple-point combo to start off Friday night?
This could be the loosest game on the slate. The Penguins are an Over team, and Jet Greaves’ play to begin the season doesn’t scare me. It could also be Cam Talbot in net for the Blue Jackets.
The top line in Columbus is getting big minutes and has gelled since acquiring Matthew Knies. Kent Johnson is still mispriced for a point, as all three forwards are also on the top power-play unit. However, Johnson at 48% is a good bet for a point on his own, while Adam Fantilli and Knies are the better duo to attack.
Tommy Novak is playing on the top power play, and his line finished with a 78% xG% last game. Novak has five points in four games this year. Two-way scoring is coming.
- Matchup: Penguins vs. Blue Jackets
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
- TV: Sportsnet Pittsburgh
Pick #2: Bobby McMann + Chandler Stephenson 1+ points each
The Red Wings are in a letdown spot tonight following their 5-3 win over the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday and the return of Dylan Larkin to the lineup. The Wings are still not a good team, are even thinner at center with the injury to JT Compher, and have one of the worst penalty kills in hockey.
Through three games, Detroit has allowed five power-play goals on 13 opportunities. The top line in Seattle is fully correlated on the first power-play unit, which means quality scoring chances for Chandler Stephenson and Bobby McMann are coming.
That line gets the most minutes at 5-on-5 and is the first unit over the boards with the man advantage. This is another game that could see some two-way scoring.
- Matchup: Kraken vs. Red Wings
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Mich.
- TV: Detroit SportsNet
Pick #3: Ducks vs. Jets Over 6.5
I'm taking another run at a Winnipeg Jets Over despite them running off three straight 3-2 wins.
There is no way Stuart Skinner can maintain this pace, having stopped 65 of his last 69 shots for a .942 SV%. He posted a SV% below .900 over his last 101 games across the previous two seasons before taking the starting reins this year.
The Jets are also likely to be without Josh Morrissey, which is a huge blow to their blue line, as he does everything and eats minutes.
Anaheim Ducks goalie Lukas Dostal was pulled in his last game, and the Ducks have scored five power-play goals over their last two contests. The visitors have two great scoring lines to lean on against a Winnipeg team that is absolutely playing above expectations and ranks in the Bottom 10 in expected goals against per 60 minutes.
The Ducks aren't defensive juggernauts either, entering Friday's tilt with a negative expected goal differential. Look for the Mark Scheifele line to do the scoring for the Jets.
- Matchup: Ducks vs. Jets
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, Manitoba
- TV: Sportsnet One/TSN3
- Top picks: 10-12, -2.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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