It was a small winning day on my Covers' Puck Props show yesterday (+0.4u), but a 1-2 straight-up day here for -0.6u. It's a full eight-game slate with a ton of mispriced point props and other +EV angles.
Noah Ostlund offers tremendous value for a point today, while goals are coming in Montreal, and I'm kicking the can on Artturi Lehkonen once again.
These are my favorite NHL predictions for Thursday, Oct. 8.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Noah Ostlund Over 0.5 points |
42% |
 / Predators vs. Canadiens Over 6.5 |
53% |
 Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 points |
49% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Noah Ostlund Over 0.5 points
Noah Ostlund is playing top-six minutes, is on the PP1, and should be priced closer to 55% for a point. He has points in two of his three games and he played more than 20 minutes in the Buffalo Sabres' overtime win on Tuesday.
The Tage Thompson line is also scoring, with the big forward coming off multi-point games in back-to-back contests. That could make it difficult for the Dallas Stars to defend Buffalo's second line on the road with the last change. Dallas scored just one goal in its first two losses before beating a Celebrini-less Sharks team 5-0 on Monday.
The Sabres have scored three-plus goals in every game and should be moneyline favorites.
- Matchup: Stars vs. Sabres
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, N.Y.
- TV: MSG
Pick #2: Predators vs. Canadiens Over 6.5
Both teams currently rank in the Bottom 10 in xG%, and the Montreal Canadiens are playing loose hockey while the Nashville Predators are coming off a 5-4 OT loss after blowing a 3-0 lead. No lead is safe in this game, as the Habs also erased a 5-1 deficit against the Pens before losing in OT.
Jakub Dobes hasn't looked elite over his last two games, stopping just 51 of 62 shots. If Sam Montembeault can't go, it could be a Jacob Fowler start, and he's been playing in the AHL.
On the other side, Juuse Saros could get the night off after having started all three games and allowing five goals to the Maple Leafs. Saros has faced at least 30 shots in each of his starts.
The Predators have scored three power-play goals over their last two games, while the Habs' PK has allowed three over its last two and Montreal has been short-handed nine times.
Both teams can score in Montreal, and Quinn Allen specifically likes Cole Caufield to light the lamp in his NHL player props tonight.
- Matchup: Predators vs. Canadiens
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec
- TV: TSN2
Pick #3: Artturi Lehkonen Over 0.5 points
I loved Artturi Lehkonen for a point last night at even money, but the Colorado Avalanche got Skinnered in Winnipeg.
Today should bring a very motivated Colorado team against the worst team in hockey in the Calgary Flames. Calgary has scored just one goal in each of its three games this season and should lose this one by multiple goals.
There were some line juggles for Colorado last night, but Lehkonen stayed alongside Nathan MacKinnon. If any power-play changes come after two games of nothing, Lehkonen could get a shot with the man advantage.
The winger is still playing 17-plus minutes per game and should be priced at 58-60% for a point. I missed it yesterday, but I'm getting it today.
Quinn Allen is eyeing an easy Colorado victory in his Avalanche vs. Flames predictions.
- Matchup: Avalanche vs. Flames
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, Alberta
- TV: SNW
- Top picks: 9-10, -1.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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