There are only four games on the slate tonight, but I've managed to find value in my NHL player props analysis.
I'm eyeing two players in D.C. to create numerous opportunities on net, while one of Pittsburgh's offseason additions will light the lamp once again.
Find out more in my NHL picks for Friday, Oct. 9.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Lafreniere Over 2.5 SOG
Tuch Over 2.5 SOG 
Robertson anytime goalPercentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Alexis Lafreniere Over 2.5 shots on goal
Play up to 45%, as Alexis Lafreniere has been one of the New York Rangers' most productive players so far.
He's already notched five points in five games, and Lafreniere has cashed the Over in SOG in three of his last four appearances. The winger also ranks second on the Rangers with 26 individual shot attempts, highlighting how frequently he's looking to fire the puck.
He's Top 5 on the team in unblocked shot attempts, averaging three per contest. New York faces a Washington Capitals team tonight that ranks 28th in SOG allowed at 31 per game, while also surrendering 5.3 SOG per night to left wingers.
With Lafreniere generating consistent volume and drawing a favorable positional matchup, I like him to clear this number again.
- Matchup: Rangers vs Capitals
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
- TV: NHL Network
Prop pick #2: Alex Tuch Over 2.5 shots on goal
Play up to 53%.
Alex Tuch has served as one of Washington's most consistent offensive creators, averaging 3.66 SOG per game. He's coming off a performance where he fired six shots on target, and the veteran's underlying numbers show just how frequently he's been firing the puck.
Tuch is second on the Capitals with 17 individual shot attempts, and he also leads the team in unblocked shot attempts, averaging 5.33 per contest. That underlying volume supports his strong start from a SOG standpoint.
With Tuch consistently generating this many attempts, clearing three shots is a very attainable number.
- Matchup: Rangers vs Capitals
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
- TV: NHL Network
Goal scorer pick: Nick Robertson
Play up to 20%.
Nick Robertson is enjoying his first season with the Pittsburgh Penguins, leading the team with three goals through four contests. The winger is consistently creating quality looks, registering eight individual scoring chances and four high-danger chances.
Robertson is also averaging 1.07 individual expected goals per 60 minutes, highlighting how frequently he's generating dangerous offense relative to his ice time. For what it's worth, he's also enjoyed success against Columbus, scoring five times in 10 career meetings.
With 8.02 shots per 60 minutes as well, Robertson continues to generate plenty of shooting opportunities. Given his current chance quality and finishing form, I like him to light the lamp again in Columbus.
- Matchup: Penguins vs Blue Jackets
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH
- TV: ESPN+
- Prop picks: 5-7, 0.58 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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