There is a Western Conference tilt in the late window of Friday’s NHL slate with the Edmonton Oilers hosting the Colorado Avalanche. NHL odds have Edmonton as a slight –135 favorite while the total sits at 6.5.
Colorado has dominated this matchup over the past couple of seasons, winning seven of the past eight meetings. The Avs won all three games when priced as the underdog over that stretch.
Will Colorado pull off the upset once again, or can Edmonton defend its home ice? Find out in my free NHL picks for Avalanche vs. Oilers on Friday, April 5.
Avalanche vs Oilers odds
Avalanche vs Oilers predictions
The Colorado Avalanche are rounding into Stanley Cup form as they've won 11 of its past 14 games. Part of the reason for this trend has been the play of goaltender Alexandar Georgiev, who is confirmed to start between the pipes for the Avs tonight.
He has allowed two or fewer goals in five of his past eight appearances in the crease, posting a 6-0-1 record with a .910 SV% and 2.51 GAA over that stretch. One of those wins came against the Edmonton Oilers, a game in which Georgiev allowed just two goals on 34 shots for a .941 SV% en route to the Avalanche’s 3-2 game.
Over his past five starts against the Oilers, Georgiev is 4-0-1 with a commanding .933 SV% and 2.30 GAA. Now, it certainly helps his cause that he usually gets an abundance of goal support.
This season, Colorado ranks in the top six of the league in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, power play percentage, and shooting percentage. It does a tremendous job at generating high-danger scoring chances, ranking third in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), which is thanks to the efforts of Hart Trophy odds front runner, Nathan MacKinnon.
On the other hand, Edmonton is perhaps one of the more “fraudulent” teams in the playoff picture. Not that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl don’t deserve to be there and are incapable of making a run, but the Oilers have beaten up lower-tier competition all season.
When facing teams ranked in the bottom half of the league, Edmonton is 31-8-1. However, when facing teams in the top half of the league, it is just 14-15-4.
My best bet: Avalanche moneyline (+105 at SIA)
Avalanche vs Oilers same-game parlay
Avalanche moneyline
Nathan MacKinnon anytime goalscorer
If we are backing Colorado to win, then we obviously need some goal-scoring from that group. Enter Nathan MacKinnon, the heavy betting favorite to win the Hart this season.
MacKinnon has gone nuclear over the past two months, posting 14 goals over his past 17 games. He has also torched Edmonton over the past half-decade, scoring in seven of their past 10 meetings.
He is always a threat to score at even-strength, but MacKinnon has still scored nearly 20% of his goals on the power play this year. I mention this because the Oilers rank 24th in penalty minutes taken per game.
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Avalanche vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Edmonton opened as a –125 favorite and has seen some money come their way as they shortened to -135.
- The total opened at 6.5 and remains steady with the juice hovering around -125 to -130 depending on the book.
- With the amount of firepower in this matchup, this number is far more likely to move to seven than it is to six.
Avalanche vs Oilers betting trend to know
Colorado has won seven of the past eight meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs Oilers. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Oilers.
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Avalanche vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Friday, April 5, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNW, ALT |
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