We’re 12 weeks into the 2023 NFL season and we have a handful of trends that continue to consistently hit week-after-week, most notably the Chiefs second-half Under and Vikings first-quarter Under — each of which hasn’t lost yet! They’re unusual bets to make, but we’re here to make money, so who cares?
The question is though, do we just keep hammering these NFL betting trends that refuse to lose, or should we back off now since all trends come to an end and these ones might be approaching their expiration date?
The answer to that question is a simple one. If NFL odds show an overwhelming reaction to trends like this, then it’s probably time to back off.
For example, the first quarter totals in the Vikings’ last two games were all the way down to 7.5, but still, they easily went Under that number in both games. If that number drops to 6.5 for their next game, it then might be time to walk away as a simple touchdown and extra point will blow up the trend.
Basing your NFL picks on trends I dish out in this article each week can be fun, but bet smart and don’t fall into the trap of blindly betting something, because you might be getting ripped off.
That’s enough lecturing from me, let’s get into the good stuff!
Best NFL Week 13 betting trends
Seahawks vs Cowboys
The trend: Dallas has gone Over its team total in all five home games
The Dallas Cowboys aren’t messing around at home this season where they’re averaging a ridiculous 41 points per game. Their team total for this game is 27.5 which they’ve easily cleared in all outings in Jerry's World. The Seattle Seahawks defense has had some rough performances against strong offenses lately, allowing 31 points to the 49ers and 37 to the Ravens.
Chargers vs Patriots
The trend: These teams are a combined 16-6 to the Under this season
The potential for rock-bottom scoring is always there in New England Patriots games, especially lately as each of their last two games didn’t even reach 20 combined points. New England has scored fewer than 10 points four different times this season and has only scored more than 20 points once. The total for this game is 40 points.
Falcons vs Jets
The trend: The Jets are averaging 10 points per game over their last five games
How low can they go? During this five-game span, the New York Jets offense has scored three touchdowns. They’re the only team in the league that’s averaging fewer than one offensive touchdown per game. They also rank dead last — by a wide margin — in both third down conversion rate and red zone touchdown conversion rate, which are both areas of strength for this Atlanta Falcons defense. New York’s team total is 16.5 points. Do with this information as you’d like.
Lions vs Saints
The trend: Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a loss
The Detroit Lions have been pretty good at bouncing back going back to the middle of last season. They covered the spread in these games quite easily thanks to four of the wins coming by double digits, so it’s fair to expect some adjustments, especially with extra time to prepare following that Thanksgiving letdown against the Packers. Detroit is currently favored by four points.
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Cardinals vs Steelers
The trend: The Steelers have gone Under in eight of their last nine games
Pittsburgh Steelers games this season are averaging just 35.1 combined points, while four of their last seven games saw 30 combined points or less. This looks like a strong pairing against an Arizona Cardinals offense that’s averaging a pitiful 11.2 points on the road where they rank last in yards per play. The total for this game is 40.
Colts vs Titans
The trend: The Titans have gone Under in 12 of their last 15 games
Yet again, another Under trend! If you enjoy rock-bottom scoring, Tennessee Titans games might be for you as seven of them within this trend saw 31 or fewer combined points. The average combined score in their games this season is just 37.2, and four of the last five games in this matchup have gone Under. This game has a total of 42.5.
Dolphins vs Commanders
The trend: These teams are a combined 18-5 to the first Half Over
This looks like a nice pairing for a high-scoring first half as these teams rank 32nd and 31st in first-half points allowed. The Miami Dolphins offense should be able to do a lot of the heavy lifting here as they rank third in first-half points scored with 16.5. This game has a 1H total of 24.5 and it’s worth noting the average combined score in the Dolphins’ first halves this season is 30.3 points.
Broncos vs Texans
The trend: The Broncos are 9-2 ATS in the first quarter this season
It’s been a down-and-up season for the Denver Broncos, but one constant has been strong starts. They’ve been especially hot in this spot lately as they’ve outscored five straight opponents in the opening quarter. Conveniently, the Houston Texans are getting off to slow starts recently as they’ve been in a first-quarter deficit in four straight games and haven’t held a lead at the end of the first quarter in seven straight. The Texans are favored by -0.5 in the opening quarter.
Panthers vs Buccaneers
The trend: The Buccaneers are 5-16 on the first quarter moneyline in their last 21 games
Strange one here, but one that’s worth considering with the Carolina Panthers at +145 on the first quarter moneyline. Carolina has actually been competitive in the opening quarter of its games this season, going 3-3-5 on the ML. It's allowing fewer 1Q points than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and scoring more. The mood for the team should be different this week after Frank Reich got fired, so perhaps the Panthers come out stronger than usual.
Browns vs Rams
The trend: The Browns are allowing 29.6 points per game on the road
The Cleveland Browns have the craziest defensive home/away split I’ve ever seen. At home, they’re allowing an NFL-best 10.2 points, but they morph into a completely different team on the road. In Cleveland, it's first in yards allowed per play, but on the road, it ranks 26th. The Los Angeles Rams’ team total is in the 20.5 ballpark, which is a number all five of the Browns’ opponents have topped in their road games.
49ers vs Eagles
The trend: The Eagles have scored first in 17 of their last 21 games.
This has been a big money spot for the Philadelphia Eagles who scored first in four of their five home games this season. For what it’s worth, they scored five minutes into their most recent game against the 49ers in last year’s NFC Championship game. They’re often the favorite in this betting market but can be had at +100 to score first in this game on Sunday.
Chiefs vs Packers
The trend: The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in all 11 of their games this season
It’s the trend that keeps on giving! Second Halves in Kansas City Chiefs games are averaging just 14.7 points and I’ll happily back this trend again with the 2H total for this game at 20.5 points.
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Bengals vs Jaguars
The trend: Jacksonville is 9-2 ATS in the first half this season
The Jacksonville Jaguars are getting off to great starts this season and they have their defense to thank as they’re allowing just 6.6 first-half points per game — second-best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals defense is getting off to awful starts on the road where it's allowing 15.8 first-half points Jacksonville is favored by 4.5 on the first-half spread.
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