You could say the NFC South is a log jam. I view the NFL's worst division as more of a clogged toilet, with just two victories separating the highest (8.5) and lowest (6.5) season win totals.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem to be slipping after years of dominance in the division, which opens up opportunities for Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans.
There’s also a ton of upheaval on the sidelines in the NFC South, so offenses and defenses will look very different in 2026.
I sort out the South and offer my best NFL picks for the upcoming season.
NFC South best picks for 2026
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Panthers Yes win NFC South |
23% |
 Falcons No 7+ Wins |
47% |
| Bijan Robinson – Yes 10+ Rushing TDs |
55% |
| Panthers Yes Playoffs |
31% |
| Tetairoa McMillan - Yes 75+ Receptions |
53% |
 Saints Yes 7+ Wins |
68% |
| Chris Olave – Yes 1,000+ Receiving Yards |
58% |
 Bucs No 9+ Wins |
58% |
| Baker Mayfield – Yes 4,000+ Passing Yards |
33% |
Read on for Jason's full analysis and NFC South breakdown!
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NFC South odds for 2026
| To win | Falcons |
Panthers |
Saints |
Bucs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Conference | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Division | 19% | 23% | 30% | 31% |
| Make Playoffs | 26% | 31% | 37% | 42% |
Best futures play: Carolina Panthers - Win NFC South (23% probability)NFC South breakdown
Atlanta Falcons: Flightless birds
The Atlanta Falcons have an uphill climb out of the gate while getting at least +4.5 in seven of their first 11 games. Bijan Robinson, head coach Kevin Stefanski, and new offensive line coach Bill Callahan will produce gains on the ground. However, the Falcons’ quandary at quarterback makes this attack one-dimensional, and defenses will be stacking the box and begging Atlanta to throw.
Tua Tagovailoa’s dwindling skills and a shallow receiving pool could struggle to produce explosive plays and pick up key first downs, leaving a gutted defense to log major minutes. Losing pass-rushers James Pearce Jr. (suspended eight games) and Jalen Walker (torn ACL) takes 16 combined sacks in 2025 off the field.
Best Falcons play: No 7+ Wins (47% probability)Carolina Panthers: Showing their claws
Look-ahead lines don’t put the Carolina Panthers too far ahead of the Falcons in the NFC South. But 10 of their 17 games are getting shorter spreads (between -3 and +3), and many of Carolina’s toughest non-divisional games come at home (hosting Chicago, Detroit, Denver, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Seattle).
The defense is rooted in the secondary and didn’t allow many big plays. The Panthers added front-seven talent in the offseason, hoping to create more chaos (although losing linebacker Nic Scourton stings). The offense puts an emphasis on passing with offensive coordinator Brad Idzik taking over play-calling, forcing QB Bryce Young to sing for his supper in a contract year.
Best Panthers play: Yes playoffs (31% probability)New Orleans Saints: Streaks and slumps
After opening on the road at Detroit and Baltimore, the New Orleans Saints can build momentum with just one true road game between Week 3 and Week 10 (a trip to Paris to play Pittsburgh in Week 7). New Orleans’ spreads sit between -3.5 and +2.5 during that span. The Saints better make the most of it, because there's messiness ahead with five road trips in the final eight weeks (in which NOLA is a dog seven times).
All eyes are on second-year QB Tyler Slough, but it’s Brandon Staley’s defense that will make or break this season. The stop unit overperformed in 2025, thanks in part to a cushy home stretch of subpar passers. New Orleans’ 2026 schedule is among the toughest, and if the defense can’t grow, Slough’s evolution will be wasted.
The Saints were also dealt a training camp injury blow when running back Alvin Kamara suffered an MCL sprain, and he's expected to be sidelined for at least a month, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Best Saints play: Yes 7+ Wins (68% probability)Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Troubled waters
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers must overcome a nasty collapse at the end of 2025, and a shuffling of assistants and coordinators ahead of this season. The most notable change is new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, whose outside running schemes breathe life into a Bucs rushing attack that lacked explosiveness. This Baker Mayfield-led offense will be better.
Defensively, we know what we’re getting from Todd Bowles. Tampa Bay will blitz its ass off, but that doesn’t always pan out in terms of pressure. The Buccaneers couldn’t flip that attack into sacks in 2025, and opposing QBs just picked them apart. Tampa also needs to tighten its belt when backed up in the red zone after allowing a league-worst 70% TD rate.
If that doesn't happen, the Bucs look like an Over play most Sundays, with 11 of 17 look-ahead totals below 48 points.
Best Bucs play: No 9+ Wins (58% probability)My favorite NFC South player props this season
Bijan Robinson – Yes 10+ Rushing TDs
Bijan fantasy managers rejoice! Tyler Allgeier is no longer vulturing touchdowns from Robinson. With a poor passing game and a sound offensive line paving the way, Robinson will get the red-zone runs and more in 2026.
Tetairoa McMillan - Yes 75+ Receptions
Tetairoa McMillan logged 70 catches during a stellar OROY campaign, and with an emphasis on Young throwing under Idzik’s play-calling, more balls will be heading his way in 2026. His year-long projections sit at 80+ receptions.
Chris Olave – Yes 1,000+ Receiving Yards
Chris Olave will draw more targets with rookie WR2 Jordyn Tyson going down. The Saints play 10 indoor games and avoid cold weather, which is a big positive for passing. Olave's forecasts bounce between 1,110 and 1,200 yards.
Baker Mayfield – Yes 4,000+ Passing Yards
Mike Evans’ exit and a dud of a year under old OC Josh Grizzard have tempered Mayfield’s 2026 markets. With Baker returning to form under Robinson and Tampa needing to put up points, he gets back to 4,000 yards.
NFC South trends to know for 2026
- Falcons: A quick way to the unemployment line is to fall short of the spread at home. That’s what Raheem Morris did during his two years in the ATL, with the Falcons going a collective 6-11 ATS inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Your move, Stefanski.
- Panthers: Dave Canales understands the importance of showing up at home. In his first two years as head coach in Carolina, the Panthers went 10-7 ATS and 12-5 O/U inside Bank of America Stadium.
- Saints: With an overperforming defense and a pop-gun offense, New Orleans was one of the best Under plays during Kellen Moore’s first season as head coach, especially at home (1-7 O/U). I’m not banking on that trend to stick around in 2026.
- Bucs: Todd Bowles has been a home underdog only nine times since taking Tampa Bay's coaching job in 2022, going 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in those rare spots. The Bucs are home pups three times in 2026 (vs. Green Bay and the two L.A. teams).
NFC South schedule in 2026
| Week (Time ET) | Road | Home |
|---|---|---|
| Week 2 (Sunday 1 p.m.) | Panthers | Falcons |
| Week 4 (Monday 8:15 p.m.) | Falcons | Saints |
| Week 7 (Sunday 1 p.m.) | Bucs | Panthers |
| Week 8 (Sunday 1 p.m.) | Falcons | Bucs |
| Week 10 (Sunday 1 p.m.) | Panthers | Saints |
| Week 12 (Monday 8:15 p.m.) | Panthers | Bucs |
| Week 14 (Sunday 1 p.m.) | Saints | Panthers |
| Week 15 (Sunday 1 p.m.) | Saints | Bucs |
| Week 16 (TBD) | Bucs | Falcons |
| Week 17 (Sunday 1 p.m.) | Saints | Falcons |
| Week 18 (TBD) | Falcons | Panthers |
| Week 18 (TBD) | Bucs | Saints |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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