The NFC North is a jungle with an ecosystem on par with Pandora from the Avatar movies. Everything is eating everything.
The 2026 NFL season is shaping up to be the most competitive campaign in years, with all four clubs boasting win totals of 8.5 or higher and just two victories separating the projected top from the bottom.
We could have a real crab bucket on our hands with the division crown coming down to the final week of the schedule. It should be fun.
Here are my quick predictions and best picks for the NFC North.
NFC North best picks for 2026
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 NFC North - Yes Division With Most Wins |
43% |
 Bears - No 10+ Wins |
52% |
| Caleb Williams - Yes 30+ TD Passes |
50% |
 Lions - No Division Winner |
66% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs – Yes 14+ Rushing TDs |
47% |
 Packers - Yes Playoffs |
55% |
| Jordan Love – Yes +4,000 Passing Yards |
35% |
 Vikings - Yes 9+ Wins |
55% |
| Justin Jefferson – Yes +1,500 Receiving Yards |
28% |
Read on for Jason's full analysis and NFC North breakdown!
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts — including NFL futures to get $35!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
NFC North odds for 2026
| To win | Bears |
Lions |
Packers |
Vikings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| Conference | 8% | 9% | 8% | 4% |
| Division | 24% | 35% | 29% | 18% |
| Make Playoffs | 51% | 65% | 55% | 42% |
Best futures play: NFC North - Division With Most Wins (43% probability)NFC North breakdown
Chicago Bears: Lightning in a bottle
The Chicago Bears lived dangerously in 2025. While QB Caleb Williams and the offense thrived under Ben Johnson, Chicago’s reliance on explosive plays and wild fourth quarter comebacks – and there were seven of them – had the Bears riding the lightning like Metallica.
The defense was equally as chaotic, generating a +22 turnover ratio. Those game-changing plays are high variance occurrences that are tough to replicate season to season. All of this landed Chicago at No. 5 in the “Luck” ratings. Covering the spread could be much tougher (faves in 12 games) if regression rolls into the Windy City.
Best Bears play: No 10+ Wins (52% probability)Detroit Lions: Early Unders in Motown
Oddsmakers are convinced the Detroit Lions will pack on the points in 2026, setting 10 look-ahead totals north of 48 points. I expect growing pains under new OC Drew Petzing, with a dip in explosive passing but an uptick in rushing efficiency and third down converts. A revamped offensive line will also need time to gel, so Unders are on my radar in the Lions’ opening five games.
Detroit gets a cozy schedule after a Week 6 bye with only one true road game between Week 7 and the Week 12 Thanksgiving game. The NFC North is a dog fight and two cold weather divisional road games (at Chicago and Green Bay) to cap the season could cost the Lions the division.
Best Lions play: No NFC North winner (66% probability)Green Bay Packers: Winter is coming
Losing DE Micah Parsons, TE Tucker Kraft and RT Zach Tom (now Bako-Bewele) manifested into a 0-4 finish and postseason collapse. Before that, the Green Bay Packers looked like Super Bowl front runners. Parsons will at least miss the first month, but the schedule plays nice with several revamped offenses showing up.
New DC Jonathan Gannon protects against the big play and the Packers can survive until Micah’s return (perhaps vs. Dallas in Week 6). The backend of the calendar gives Green Bay the inside track in the playoff hunt. It plays four of its final five games on the frozen tundra, including three wintery welcomes to warm climate/indoor teams (Miami, Houston, and Detroit) at Lambeau.
Best Packers play: Yes Playoffs (55% probability)Minnesota Vikings: Purple pillagers
Not only are the Minnesota Vikings feeling good about QB Kyler Murray and his connection with Justin Jefferson and a talented receiving corps, but a retooled running scheme is expected to produce more explosive rushes. The Vikings are going to need all the offense they can get in the high-scoring NFC North, especially if Brian Flores’ blitz-happy sets can’t mask the stop unit’s soft spots.
Minnesota has held its own inside the division with an 8-4 SU record the past two years and could keep this race tight, especially in the back half of the season. The Vikings play just two true road games in the final eight weeks (trip to Mexico vs. 49ers in Week 11) and are favorites in five of those contests. Minnesota is a collective 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in Dec/Jan the last two seasons.
Best Vikings play: Yes 9+ Wins (55% probability)My favorite NFC North player props
Caleb Williams – Yes 30+ Passing TDs
Bears coach Ben Johnson told reporters that he wants to break the NFL’s scoring record in 2026. That would require Chicago to average 38+ points and a ton of touchdown passes from Williams. Projections top out at 30 TDs after 27 touchdown strikes last year.
Jahmyr Gibbs – Yes 14+ Rushing TDs
Gibbs struck for 13 rushing touchdowns while sharing carries with fellow RB David Montgomery (8 TDs) last year. He’s the bell cow back in Motown now and new OC Drew Petzing loves to run with power.
Jordan Love – Yes +4,000 Passing Yards
If the Packers are going to make the tournament again, all they need is Love. And lots of him. He passed for almost 3,400 yards despite missing two games in 2025, ranked among the best in intended air yards per attempt, and has speedy downfield threats
Justin Jefferson – Yes +1,500 Receiving Yards
Even a down year for J.J. is a 1,000-yard finish. The mystery around Murray skews projection models and prediction markets, but his accuracy and Jefferson’s route running have a high ceiling worth a trade at this price.
NFC North trends to know for 2026
- Bears: Chicago’s Over/Under splits were notable in Year 1 under Ben Johnson. The Bears went 2-6 O/U at home (44.1 combined ppg) compared to 6-2-1 O/U on the road (56.6 combined ppg).
- Lions: Detroit lost its underdog bite in 2025, going 2-4 ATS when getting points after barking to a 22-10 ATS clip (69%) as pups in Dan Campbell’s first four years. The Lions are look-ahead underdogs only three times in 2026.
- Packers: The Packers make the most of the Wisconsin winter, going 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS at home between Week 14 and 17 under Matt LaFleur (since 2019). This season, Green Bay plays four of its final five games at Lambeau Field.
- Vikings: Brian Flores is one of the best defensive minds in the business and keeps things competitive, at least when the Vikings are at home. Since 2023, Minnesota is 8-16 O/U inside U.S. Bank Stadium (67% Unders).
NFC North schedule in 2026
| Week (Time ET) | Road | Home |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Packers | Vikings |
| Week 2 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Vikings | Bears |
| Week 5 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Bears | Packers |
| Week 7 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Packers | Lions |
| Week 8 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Vikings | Lions |
| Week 10 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Vikings | Packers |
| Week 12 (Thu 1 p.m.) | Bears | Lions |
| Week 15 (Sun 8:20 p.m.) | Lions | Vikings |
| Week 16 (Fri 1 p.m.) | Packers | Bears |
| Week 17 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Lions | Bears |
| Week 18 (TDB) | Bears | Vikings |
| Week 18 (TBD) | Lions | Packers |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
