Week 14 is already here, and with a cold run on the go, I’m getting a little creative and looking at some big plus-money NFL touchdown prop plays this week.
Drew Lock was my first choice, with books not adjusting his price after a great running performance on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is looking for his ninth TD in as many games, and my touchdown NFL picks are also expecting some chaos in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Week 14 touchdown props
- Lock anytime touchdown (+700 at bet365)
- Westbrook-Ikhine anytime touchdown (+200 at BetMGM)
- Browns/Steelers defensive or special teams touchdown (+265 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 14 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Drew Lock anytime touchdown
Best odds: +700 at bet365
It’s one more week of Drew Lock for the New York Giants, and following a great rushing season debut against the Cowboys, where the quarterback ran four times for 57 yards and a score, bettors are still getting his anytime touchdown priced at +700.
That price isn’t available everywhere, and there are books at +400, which is still decent for a bad quarterback with running backs who struggle to punch it in. This is also a player playing for his career and is willing to sacrifice himself more than some other players who have defined roles. His TD last week came in the fourth quarter from the 8-yard line and was his only red-zone carry.
The offense should be able to move the ball against the New Orleans Saints, who could be giving up great field position all game with arguably the most-injured offense in the league.
There's a chance Lock doesn’t play the whole game, but +700 is tough to ignore for a signal-caller who had the third-most rushing yards from a QB in Week 13 and more yards than Kenneth Walker. This might not be a full-unit play for everyone, but it is for me.
TD Prop bet #2: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine anytime touchdown
Best odds: +200 at BetMGM
The Tennessee Titans might not be winning games, but with Will Levis throwing the ball, there are yards — and touchdowns — to go around. Just ask Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who has a TD in seven of his last eight games and averaged 75.3 receiving yards and 1.5 scores per game over the last three games since shipping out DeAndre Hopkins.
The Tennessee offense doesn’t usually get good matchups but a road game against Mac Jones and a distracted Jacksonville Jaguars team is a great spot for this downfield offense to keep chucking the ball NWI’s way.
Much is priced in as many are well aware of the TD production from Levis' new favorite downfield target, but +250 for a score is a solid price and one I’d buy to +200.
Not everyone has access to Pinnacle, so I’ll put BetMGM’s +200 TD price on the record — just make sure you get the Pinnacle price if you can. Adding to this is the health of starting corner Tyson Campbell, who missed practice Wednesday and is questionable. He missed five games earlier this year, and the Jags’ pass defense ranked 31st in EPA against the pass.
TD Prop bet #3: Browns/Steelers defensive or special teams touchdown
Best odds: +265 at bet365
I might still have Week 13 MNF on my brain, but Jameis Winston is about as predictable a quarterback as there is. He had three interceptions which included a pair of pick-sixes.
Over his five starts this year, the opposing defense has forced 10 turnovers, seven INTs, and two TDs. Considering this is a game between two QBs who threw for 900+ combined yards last week, I’m hoping for another high-volume passing game from QBs who have been known to give points to the defense.
These defensive TDs are not priced uniformly across all books, so shopping around on what you like is important. A special teams or defensive TD is paying +265. The Pittsburgh defense is paying +500 at FanDuel, while the Browns are paying a whopping +1,500 for a defensive score. That’s in sharp contrast to DraftKings, who has this Browns defense to score at +475. Pittsburgh’s defense to score the last TD is an appetizing bet and can be found as long as +1,900 at FanDuel.
I think with what bettors saw on Monday night and Winston’s late passing aggressiveness, that last TD bet at +1,900 will find its way into my account, but I’m taking the defense or special teams TD at +265 as the best bet. If the Steelers are +500 for their defense to score, getting the Browns’ defense and both special teams at better than half the cost is a move I’m happy to take — especially with that +1,900 dart in my back pocket.
There are also scoop-and-score opportunities with these pash rushes, in addition to the pick-six always being alive. The special teams angle is the cherry on top.
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