The New York Liberty blew a late lead to the Portland Fire on Tuesday night, but my Liberty vs. Fire predictions believe lightning will not strike twice tonight at Moda Center.
New York will exploit the Fire's defensive issues for all 40 minutes, as I explain in my WNBA picks for Thursday, May 14.
Liberty vs Fire prediction
Liberty vs Fire best bet: Liberty -11.5 (-110)
I was on the New York Liberty Tuesday night, and watched them lead for 77% of the game before a 28-19 fourth quarter gave the Portland Fire a buzzer-beater win.
Despite Tuesday’s loss, the Liberty still owns the WNBA’s best offensive rating at 117.6 and are shooting at an elite 59.1% eFG%.
Portland enters this matchup with the league’s worst defense, allowing 97 points per game while opponents shoot 50.4% from the field and 42.2% from three.
The Liberty won’t collapse twice in the same building against the same bad Fire defense.
COVERS INTEL: The Fire defense is allowing the second-most assists per game (22.5), and faces a Liberty offense averaging the third-most assists in the WNBA (22.7).
Liberty vs Fire same-game parlay
Portland surrenders a 42.2% mark from downtown, second-worst in the WNBA, and Marine Johannes and Jonquel Jones exploited it, going a combined 6-for-13 from deep in Tuesday’s loss.
Thirty-plus minutes tonight of those two snipers against that shaky Fire perimeter defense should see both ladies clear their made threes scoring props.
Bridget Carleton is a career 40% 3-point shooter, averaging nine attempts per game. She hit five triples on Tuesday, and with Portland giving her the green light to fire away, I expect at least two made threes.
Liberty vs Fire SGP
- Marine Johannes Over 2.5 made threes
- Jonquel Jones Over 1.5 made threes
- Bridget Carleton Over 1.5 made threes
Liberty vs Fire first basket scorer: Jonquel Jones (+500)
Jones was dangerous offensively from everywhere Tuesday, finishing with 17 points while going 3-for-6 from three and attacking the paint all night.
The 6-foot-1 Jones is New York's most versatile scoring option, equally comfortable in pick-and-roll or stepping back from deep. She is just as likely to score the first bucket as Breanna Stewart.
- Best bet: 2-1, +0.96 units
- SGP: 1-2, +0.90 units
- First basket: 1-2, +1.50 units
Liberty vs Fire odds
- Spread: Liberty -11.5 | Fire +11.5
- Moneyline: Liberty -800 | Fire +550
- Over/Under: Over 176.5 | Under 176.5
Liberty vs Fire trend
The Liberty have scored 50+ 1H points in all three games this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Liberty vs Fire
| Location | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date | Thursday, May 14, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Liberty vs Fire latest injuries
Liberty: Satou Sabally (GTD), Rebecca Allen (Out), Raquel Carrera (GTD), Leonie Fiebich (Out), Sabrina Ionescu (Out).
Fire: Karlie Samuelson (Out), Carla Leite (GTD), Sug Sutton (GTD).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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