The Phillies and Red Sox play the rubber game of their midweek series at Fenway on Thursday.
Each team has a win, but they’ve combined for seven runs in the two games. Boston and Philly are both playing better since changing managers last month, but neither team is hitting.
Boston appears to have the better end of a southpaw pitching matchup. My Phillies vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks look for the Sox to take it at home.
Who will win Phillies vs Red Sox today: Red Sox moneyline (-106)
Wednesday’s 2-1 win marked the 15th time this season the Boston Red Sox have scored three runs or fewer at Fenway Park. Boston has scored 21 in their last 11 at home.
The Red Sox face lefty Jesus Luzardo who has a 5.77 ERA, although the underlying stats indicate that might be partially due to bad luck. Boston hits 96 OPS points higher against lefties and is 13% better than league average.
The Philadelphia Phillies have also been hitting below league average on the season and face Boston southpaw Ranger Suarez. Philadelphia is hitting 10% below league average and 51 OPS worse against lefties.
COVERS INTEL: Luzardo is in baseball’s top 10% in strikeout percentage, swing and miss, chase rate, exit velocity against and hard-hit percentage against. His FIP (a predictor of future ERA) is below 3.00. So he should start seeing better results soon.
Phillies vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-125)
Suarez left Philadelphia last winter after eight seasons, so he’s familiar with the lineup. He’s held opponents scoreless in four of his last five starts and has logged two eight-inning outings over that span. His fastball’s run value is in MLB’s top 1%, and his overall pitching value is top 5%.
Most of Luzardo’s struggles have been at home this season. He’s 2-0, 2.04 in road starts with 12 strikeouts per nine. Opponents are hitting 21% below league average against him away from Philadelphia. Add that to Boston’s offensive struggles at home (74 OPS+) and it should be low-scoring.
- ML/RL bets: 12-17 -4.26 units
- Over/Under bets: 17-16 -0.33 units
Phillies vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -104 | Boston -100
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+156) | Boston +1.5 (-163)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+117) | Under 7.5 (-122)
Phillies vs Red Sox trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+12.40 Units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Phillies vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Thursday, May 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Philadelphia, NESN |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (3-3, 5.98 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Ranger Suarez (2-2, 2.77 ERA) |
Phillies vs Red Sox latest injuries
Phillies vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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