The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros finish off a four-game AL West series at Daikin Park on Thursday, May 14, and my top Mariners vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks expect Houston to eke out a win this afternoon in the series finale.
Who will win Mariners vs Astros today: Astros moneyline (+117)
The rubber has hit the road for Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo, and his annual statistical decline has hit rock bottom through eight 2026 starts. His average fastball velocity has dropped each of the past four seasons while his xFIP has also climbed in sync to his current, career-high 4.34 mark.
This isn’t a layup matchup against the Houston Astros for Seattle, either.
Houston is third in wOBA against right-handed pitchers, and Astros starter Mike Burrows has found a groove across his past three starts with a 2.50 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a 30.6% hard-hit rate.
COVERS INTEL: Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo has surrendered an alarming 58.3% hard-hit rate across his past three starts.
Mariners vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-125)
While the sum of Castillo’s statistical parts isn’t pretty, there have been a few signs, with the righty allowing three earned runs or fewer in four of his eight starts. Additionally, his highlighted xFIP is well below his 6.57 ERA, and there is screaming statistical correction coming to his unsustainable .364 BABIP and 59.0% strand rate.
Add the potential for both teams to rest regulars in this afternoon series finale, and I’m anticipating both starters to put enough zeros on the scoreboard to keep this total Under the number Thursday.
- ML/RL bets: 20-11, +10.05 units
- Over/Under bets: 12-6, +5.37 units
Mariners vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Mariners -125 | Astros +105
- Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+130) | Astros +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-125)
Mariners vs Astros trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.50 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
How to watch Mariners vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, May 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Mariners.TV, SCHN |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Luis Castillo (0-4, 6.57 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Mike Burrows (2-4, 5.04 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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