In a battle of bachelorette party hot spots, the Tennessee Titans come to South Beach to dance with the Miami Dolphins in the latest Week 14 odds. Given the near two-touchdown spread, much like those bachelorette bashes, things could get messy in the MNF odds.
Miami is moving up the power rankings, having won three straight while claiming the top spot in the AFC heading into Week 14. The Dolphins are playing just their second home game in the past 42 days, owning a 4-1 ATS mark as hosts in the NFL odds this season.
Tennessee, on the other hand, is one of the worst road bets in the league, bringing a 1-5 ATS mark as a visitor to Hard Rock Stadium. Florida hasn’t been kind to the Titans, with the team losing by a combined score of 54-20 in stops at Jacksonville and Tampa Bay earlier this year.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL picks for Titans vs. Dolphins on Monday, December 11.
Titans vs Dolphins odds
Titans vs Dolphins predictions
The Miami Dolphins have a wealth of riches on the offensive side. Match that stacked depth chart with a big spread for this Week 14 homestand and the touchdown markets offer plenty of possibilities.
Those options include the AFC’s leader in touchdowns scored, running back Raheem Mostert. He’s found paydirt 16 times this season — one score behind 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey and four more than teammate WR Tyreek Hill.
Yet, Hill enters this Week 14 Monday night meeting with the Tennessee Titans as the heavy favorite to score a touchdown at -220 while Mostert’s TD prop is fourth on the odds board at +115 (behind fellow RB De’Von Achane and WR Jaylen Waddle).
Mostert is seeing his snap count nearly cut in half with Achane back on the field, but he is the preferred red-zone running back and Monday’s point spread paints a positive game script for Mostert.
Given the Dolphins are almost two-touchdown chalk at home, Miami will likely be protecting a bigger lead in the second half and that should spread the carries around in the Dolphins’ backfield. Tennessee also allows the fourth most red-zone possessions per game in the NFL.
Mostert has found paydirt in six of his last eight games, including last week’s win at Washington. He received only 11 carries and finished with 43 yards rushing but did pick up touchdown No. 16 on a 1-yard goal-line run just before the end of the first half.
My best bet: Raheem Mostert anytime touchdown (+115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Titans vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Mostert is the second-leading touchdown scorer in the NFL and will have his chances to crack the goal line again on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the Titans are one of the worst offenses in the NFL away from home and have a rookie QB facing this Vic Fangio defense. The Fins should be able to get up quickly and cruise, which turns me off from backing the big spread. Stay safe with the outright winner odds.
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Titans vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
The Dolphins opened as 13-point home favorites and after a brief stop at -14, this spread hit in the middle at -13.5. Covers Consensus shows 68% of picks laying the points with Miami.
The Dolphins are the top team in the AFC after a three-game winning streak. The Fins offense has been humming all year, but the real difference maker is the defense. It took some time for this unit to gel in Vic Fangio’s schemes, but this is the top defense in the NFL since Week 5.
Miami ranks No. 1 in EPA allowed per play over its last eight games and faces a Tennessee offense that just isn’t the same squad away from Nashville. The Titans, who average 25.4 points per home game, put up only 12.3 points per away outing.
That offense is under the control of rookie Will Levis, who has struggled in all venues the past month. Levis now takes on a Fangio defense that does a great job disguising coverage and pressure. Fangio is also 23-9 straight up versus rookie quarterbacks as a head coach or coordinator during his career.
The Monday night total hit the board at 46.5 points and has bounced between that and 47 for most of the week. Covers Consensus shows 69% of picks backing the Over.
The Titans’ methodical offense and a “bend but don’t break” defense has led to a 4-8 Over/Under record, including 1-5 O/U on the road. The Dolphins are 7-5 O/U but are 3-3 O/U the last six games, with the defense turning up the intensity.
Titans vs Dolphins betting trend to know
Tennessee is 4-11 to the O/U in its last 15 road games going back to 2022, including 1-5 O/U as a visitor this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Dolphins.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Titans vs Dolphins game info
|Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
|Monday, December 11, 2023
|8:15 p.m. ET
|ESPN or ABC
|Dolphins -13, 47
Titans vs Dolphins latest injuries
Titans vs Dolphins weather
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