Our Falcons vs. Packers best bets run the gamut for tonight's Thursday Night Football clash at Lambeau Field.
From the spread (Packers -5.5) to the total (44.5) to player props, this is your one-stop NFL picks shop ahead of this 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Amazon Live Video on Thursday, Sept. 24.
Thursday Night Football predictions: Falcons vs Packers
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Packers moneyline |
72% |
 Falcons +5.5 |
50% |
| / Under 44.5 |
51% |
| MarShawn Lloyd 30+ rush yds |
47% |
| Drake London 60+ rec yds |
56% |
| Bijan Robinson anytime TD |
57% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Falcons vs Packers?
The Green Bay Packers are big favorites over the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field, and Trevor Knapp doesn't expect an upset in his NFL moneyline picks for Week 3.
Our prediction: Packers to win — Yes (72%)
"Sure, Michael Penix Jr. is an upgrade over Cooper Rush, but that won't matter much given Atlanta's bleak receiving options beyond Drake London.
"The Kevin Stefanski era is already off to a messy start in Atlanta, and things will get even uglier when the Packers blow out the Falcons in prime time."
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Thursday Night Football spread prediction
Our prediction: Packers -5.5 — No (50%)
While we're looking at the Packers to win, Chris Vasile isn't bullish on their chances to cover 5.5 points in his NFL Week 3 against-the-spread picks.
"The Falcons can lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and don't need Penix to win this game by himself.
"Green Bay hasn't exactly looked trustworthy through two weeks either, and asking the Packers to win by six against a much different Atlanta offense is too much for me."
Thursday Night Football total prediction
Our prediction: Over 44.5 — No (51%)
Despite Penix's return, Joe Osborne doesn't expect a ton of fireworks from either offense.
"Atlanta averaged just 20.6 points in Penix’s nine starts last season — barely above Miami’s 25th-ranked 20.4 — and only 16 points per game in five road starts, where his stats fell off a cliff. Good luck at Lambeau in prime time," Osborne writes in his Falcons vs. Packers predictions. "The defenses offer some positives, though. Both rank inside the top nine in yards per play allowed while ranking second and third in yards per rush attempt allowed. That could create some challenging third-down attempts for offenses ranked 29th and 32nd in third-down conversion rate."
Falcons vs Packers predictions for Thursday Night Football
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Thursday Night Football player props
Rushing prop: MarShawn Lloyd 30+ rushing yards — Yes (47%)
Jason Logan isn't shying away from MarShawn Lloyd just yet.
"Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson got the bulk of the work in Week 2, and even with LaFleur stating Johnson will see more touches, Lloyd’s downhill running style and positive projections have me taking his Over on rushing yards Thursday.
"Lloyd’s Week 3 forecasts are very positive, sitting between 45 and 57 yards. That’s well past his 30+ rushing yards market and offers value to ladder his gains on the ground (40+, 50+, and 60+)."
Receiving prop: Drake London 60+ receiving yards — Yes (56%)
With Penix back behind center, Logan also likes Drake London to see a spike in production.
"(London’s) the QB’s favorite target and faces a zone-anchored pass defense from the Packers, who are dropping back in zone on almost 80% of snaps.
"London rated out No. 4 among WRs versus zone coverage in 2025 and is currently No. 8 against zone in 2026, despite crappy QBs throwing him the ball."
Check out Logan's full Falcons vs. Packers player props for his complete breakdown.
Falcons anytime touchdown prop: Bijan Robinson — Yes (57%)
Kyle LaRusic is backing the Falcons' ground game finally reaching the red zone and ultimately breaking through to find paydirt.
"Robinson's workload is absurd. After touching the ball on nearly 66% of Atlanta's snaps in Week 1, he ran for 16 of Atlanta's 32 rush attempts while getting targeted four times before the Falcons finally waved the white flag.
"Atlanta hasn't had a snap in the red zone this season (holy shit lol), BUT Penix should be able to move the ball better than Cooper Dawdle and whoever the hell replaced him."
For more touchdown angles, check out our full Falcons vs. Packers touchdown picks.
Falcons vs Packers live markets explained
Kalshi event contracts can be bought and sold as the Falcons vs. Packers unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Falcons vs Packers prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Falcons beat the Packers?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Falcons vs. Packers position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Falcons vs Packers at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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