Another week of NFL action begins with Thursday Night Football for Week 5, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, and we're analyzing the matchup through our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys best bets.
Our experts have dug up moneyline, spread, and total predictions, plus player props and touchdown angles for tonight's game.
Kickoff is set for Thursday, Oct. 8 at 8:15 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (Prime Video), with the Cowboys favored by 7.5 points and the total sitting at 47.5.
Thursday Night Football predictions: Buccaneers vs Cowboys
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Cowboys moneyline |
79% |
| Cowboys -7.5 |
52% |
/ Over 47.5 |
51% |
| Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards |
54% |
| Chris Godwin 25+ receiving yards |
57% |
| Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown |
28% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Buccaneers vs Cowboys?
Covers senior betting analyst Jason Logan is eyeing Dallas in his Buccaneers vs. Cowboys moneyline pick.
Our prediction: Cowboys moneyline — Yes (79%)
"Thursday games can produce strange results, so it wouldn’t shock me if this Week 5 opener was a little closer than oddsmakers expect. That said, the Dallas Cowboys can put up points in a hurry, and while Todd Bowles’ aggressive defense can fluster some QBs, Dak Prescott is one of the best at burning blitzing opponents.
The receiving combo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens is a 'pick your poison' pairing for a Bucs secondary missing a couple starters."
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Thursday Night Football spread prediction
Our prediction: Cowboys -7.5 — Yes (52%)
Chris Vasile also likes the Cowboys in his NFL against the spread picks for Week 5.
"The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are asking rookie Jalon Daniels to handle a short-week road start with Baker Mayfield sidelined. Daniels can create with his legs, but Dallas should be able to make him chase points instead of protecting him.
The Cowboys’ defense has been vulnerable, so laying this many isn’t comfortable, but Tampa is 0-4 and missing its starting quarterback."
Thursday Night Football total prediction
Market lean: Over 47.5 — Yes (51%)
NFL analyst Joe Osborne makes the Over his top pick in his Buccaneers vs. Cowboys predictions.
"The Cowboys have cashed 10 straight Overs, averaging 58.2 combined points, and are 17-4 to the Over since last season began. I’m not standing in front of that!
This season’s 4-0 Over run averages 58.5 combined points, with the last two games reaching the 60s.
This Cowboys' offense averages 30.5 points and should do the heavy lifting, while their horrendous defense will offer plenty of opportunities for this underwhelming Buccaneers offense."
More Buccaneers vs Cowboys picks from Covers
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: Thursday Night Football Week 5
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- Buccaneers vs Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions: Thursday Night Football
- Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Moneyline Pick & Odds: Thursday Night Football Week 5
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys AI Predictions for TNF: Week 5 ATS Pick & TD Projection
Thursday Night Football player props
Rushing prop: Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards — Yes (54%)
Jason Logan also backs Bucky Irving to clear 50 rushing yards in his Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prop picks.
"With a backup under center, Bowles wants to protect Daniels from any bad spots. That means using the run to set up third-and-manageable situations for his inexperienced passer.
The Bucs ran the ball on almost 51% of their snaps last Sunday, a notable deviation from their run-play percentage of 40.6% on the season.
Bowles used three RBs versus the Packers, but Irving's snaps didn’t take a hit, leaving Kenny Gainwell to see a dip with Sean Tucker getting touches. Irving ran 16 times for 61 yards in Week 4 despite being limited in practice due to a glute injury."
Receiving prop: Chris Godwin 25+ receiving yards — Yes (57%)
Logan likes Chris Godwin's receiving floor too.
"A beefy spread points to the Bucs being in a negative game script, putting pressure on backup QB Daniels to pass.
The Bucs do face a softer secondary in the Cowboys' unit, even with new addition Joey Porter Jr. Dallas allowed 10.2 yards per pass to the Houston Texas on Sunday, and the team ranks dead-last in EPA allowed per dropback.
Dallas has been especially susceptible to second options, rating 29th in defensive DVOA versus WR2s at FTN. They’ve watched those wideouts amass more than 54 yards per outing."
Anytime touchdown prop: Jake Ferguson — Yes (28%)
Kyle LaRusic likes Ferguson to find the end zone again in his Buccaneers vs. Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer picks.
"Jake Ferguson hasn't exactly been racking up yardage, but he already has three touchdowns in four games this season. Luckily for us, this is an anytime TD article, not a receiving yards one.
Fergy, at 6-foot-5, makes for an excellent red-zone target when the Cowboys get close. Despite sharing the field with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the Dallas TE sits second on the team with targets inside the 20 (four) — hauling in all of them.
He also has two inside the 10, with one resulting in a TD. PFF rates this as a fair matchup, and that has me playing this TD prop up to 34%."
Buccaneers vs Cowboys live markets explained
Kalshi event contracts can be bought and sold as the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys game unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Buccaneers vs Cowboys prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Buccaneers beat the Cowboys?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Buccaneers vs. Cowboys position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Buccaneers vs Cowboys at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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