The Over has been an absolute wagon in Dallas Cowboys games, which has me excited to make my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Our complete Buccaneers vs. Cowboys predictions also explain why you should add the Over to your NFL picks card for Oct. 8.
Best Buccaneers vs Cowboys anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Bucky Irving |
32% |
 Jake Ferguson |
28% |
| First TD: CeeDee Lamb |
14% |
| Long shot: Brevyn Spann-Ford |
9% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Buccaneers touchdown pick: Bucky Irving
Todd Bowles mentioned splitting the reps among his three running backs, but through four games, Bucky Irving has carried the brunt of the workload, which is why Jason Logan also likes him to clear his rushing total in his Buccaneers vs. Cowboys props.
Irving has 56 rush attempts compared to Kenneth Gainwell's 13 and Sean Tucker's three, and it's only a matter of time before the touchdowns follow.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' RB played 58% of snaps in Week 4 but still had 16 rush attempts — the third straight week with 15+.
Tampa Bay will continue to rely on its RBs against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has given up the second-most rushing yards per game and four rushing TDs through four weeks.
Irving leads all Tampa RBs in carries inside the 20, and he'll find the end zone on TNF for the first time since Week 1. Play to 38%.
Cowboys touchdown pick: Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson hasn't exactly been racking up yardage, but he already has three touchdowns in four games this season. Luckily for us, this is an anytime TD article, not a receiving yards one.
Fergy, at 6-foot-5, makes for an excellent red-zone target when the Cowboys get close. Despite sharing the field with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the Dallas TE sits second on the team with targets inside the 20 (four) — hauling in all of them.
He also has two inside the 10, with one resulting in a TD. PFF rates this as a fair matchup, and that has me playing this TD prop up to 34%.
First touchdown scorer pick: CeeDee Lamb
After 17 catches last week, I want in on the CeeDee Lamb touchdown fun. His 48% price tag isn't exactly turning my crank, but him scoring first at 14% will do.
Lamb was the catalyst in Dallas' 28-point second half, and while Javonte Williams scored three times, the WR1 helped move the ball downfield.
I think the Cowboys look toward their top receiver early and often, getting him in the end zone a little earlier than the fourth quarter this time around.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Brevyn Spann-Ford
Let's get weird. I've hit back-to-back long-shot touchdowns, and Brevyn Spann-Ford is the man who will make it three straight tonight.
Spann-Ford has only four targets this season, but he's caught three. Although he hasn't scored, his snap count has caught my eye. He's moved from 22% in Week 1 to 40% last week, surpassing Luke Schoonmaker as Dallas' TE2.
In a home game where the Cowboys are touchdown favorites against a rookie QB, I could see the bench getting a little more run.
BRING US HOME BREVYN!
Buccaneers vs Cowboys touchdown combo
Bucky Irving
Jake Ferguson
These are my top two favorite TD plays of the game, and combining them gives us a juicy 10x payout. With how bad Dallas' rushing defense has been, Irving should find paydirt with a 15-carry workload.
Ferguson is also one of Dak Prescott's favorite end zone targets, and he'll score TD No. 4 tonight.
- TD picks: 6-4, +17.10 units
- First TD picks: 0-4, -2.00 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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