A short week sends the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Texas for a two-step with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.
With a backup under center, this spread is surging above a touchdown, and the total respects the potential firepower on the field.
My Bucs vs. Cowboys prop picks isolate the individual matchups and provide edges for these NFL picks on Oct. 8.
Best Buccaneers vs Cowboys props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Chris Godwin 25+ receiving yards |
57% |
 Javonte Williams 15+ receiving yards |
53% |
| Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards |
54% |
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Prop pick #1: Chris Godwin 25+ receiving yards
The beefy spread points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being in a negative game script, putting pressure on backup QB Jalon Daniels to pass.
The Bucs do face a softer secondary in the Dallas Cowboys' unit, even with new addition Joey Porter Jr. Dallas allowed 10.2 yards per pass to Houston on Sunday and ranks dead-last in EPA allowed per dropback.
The Cowboys have been especially susceptible to second options, rating 29th in defensive DVOA versus WR2s at FTN. They’ve watched those WR2s amass more than 54 yards per outing.
That sets Tampa Bay WR2 Chris Godwin up for a solid game. He’s been quiet to start 2026 due to the defensive opposition and losing QB1 Baker Mayfield to injury.
Head coach Todd Bowles told the media the team needs to do a better job getting Godwin the ball, and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson echoed those sentiments during Tuesday’s press conference.
Godwin was targeted seven times in Daniels’ first start last weekend, hauling in six balls for just 31 yards. His projections for Thursday night range from 33 yards to a ceiling of 52, with my number just short of 40 receiving yards.
The wideout will also enjoy playing on the fast track of AT&T Stadium, as his receiving stats spike in climate-controlled conditions.
Prop pick #2: Javonte Williams 15+ receiving yards
Dallas running back Javonte Williams has been huge the past two games, but he could find rushing room hard to come by against the Bucs’ run defense.
Tampa Bay rates among the best defenses versus the ground game, sitting No. 2 in EPA allowed per handoff, No. 5 in run defense DVOA, and No. 4 in opponent's success rate per run.
That means the Cowboys need to find other ways to get the ball in Williams’ hands. And with the Buccaneers bringing blitzes at the second-highest rate, that will be done through short pressure-release passes to the RB. Williams caught three of four targets for 20 yards against a similarly aggressive Washington defense in Week 2.
While Tampa Bay holds RBs to the third-lowest rushing yards, it allows the seventh-most receiving yards to the position, along with the third-most receptions from RBs. Green Bay RB MarShawn Lloyd recorded five catches for 36 yards in Week 4.
Williams’ TNF projections don’t call for a massive contribution through the air, ranging from 14 to 19 yards. My number is 17+ receiving yards in Week 5. I respect the higher ceiling given this matchup.
Prop pick #3: Bucky Irving 50+ rushing yards
With a backup under center, Bowles wants to protect Daniels from any bad spots. That means using the run to set up third-and-manageable situations for his inexperienced passer.
The Bucs ran the ball on almost 51% of their snaps last Sunday, a notable deviation from their run-play percentage of 40.6% on the season.
Bowles used three RBs versus the Packers, but Bucky Irving's snaps didn’t take a hit, leaving Kenny Gainwell to see a dip with Sean Tucker getting touches. Irving ran 16 times for 61 yards in Week 4 despite being limited in practice due to a glute injury.
His rushing forecasts all sit well above 50 yards on Thursday, with models ranging from 55 to 75 yards on the ground. My projection says 67 rushing yards from Irving.
- Prop picks: 18-9, +9.15 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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