Thursday Night Football was going to be an NFC heavyweight battle before Baker Mayfield got hurt and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stumbled out to a 0-4 record.
Tampa Bay is a big underdog visiting the Dallas Cowboys to open NFL Week 5. I measure those outright markets for my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys moneyline picks for Oct. 8.
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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys moneyline odds and pick
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Cowboys moneyline |
79% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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The case for the Buccaneers moneyline
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are long shots to leave Jerry’s World with a win. If they do, it will be thanks to Todd Bowles’ chaos-causing defense and a steady running game, with Tampa using three separate RBs to grind out gains. The Bucs need to control possession and keep the Cowboys offense off the field.
The case for the Cowboys moneyline
The Dallas Cowboys offense is among the best in the NFL, with this passing game putting up massive numbers. Tampa Bay’s secondary is down two starters on the short week, and if this game turns into a shootout, the Bucs will come up short with backup Jalon Daniels out of his depth. The Cowboys are 14-2 straight up in their last 16 home games as a favorite of a touchdown or more.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys moneyline pick & confidence level
Thursday games can produce strange results, so it wouldn’t shock me if this Week 5 opener was a little closer than oddsmakers expect. That said, Dallas can put up points in a hurry, and while Bowles’ aggressive defense can fluster some QBs, Dak Prescott is one of the best at burning blitzing opponents.
The receiving combo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens is a “pick your poison” pairing for a Bucs secondary missing a couple starters.
Pick: Cowboys Probability: 79%
Confidence:🟢 Standard
COVERS INTEL: Dallas is a top 10 passing attack in many popular analytics like EPA per dropback and DVOA. Tampa Bay is without FS Antoine Winfield Jr. and CB Benjamin Morrison for TNF.Game overview
Date: Thursday, Oct. 10
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Stadium: AT&T Stadium
TV: Prime Video
Broadcast Team: Al Michaels & Kirk Herbstreit
What are prediction markets?
A prediction market allows you to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a future event. Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets. Most prediction market apps allow users to "buy an outcome" for between 1 cent and $1.
The $1.00 rule: The foundation of prediction markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn't actually that difficult. In fact, you can make a compelling case that American odds are more challenging for beginners to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, NFL prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The Winning Side: Always settles at $1.00
- The Losing Side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a "Yes" contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for the Chicago Bears to beat the Detroit Lions is trading at $0.51, the market believes they have a 51% chance of victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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