We're getting two teams with tremendous firepower tonight, so I'll be leaning toward the Over in my Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights prediction.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 39% win probability at Novig against the Vegas Golden Knights, but I'm targeting the Over with two teams near the top of the league in expected goals for.
Tap into my NHL picks for Thursday, Oct. 8, and let's build on a strong start to the season.
TOP PICK
Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights prediction: Over 6.5
I'd play this up to 55%.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Vegas Golden Knights are both near the top of the league in expected goals for, and the latter has gone 3-1 to the Over this season.
Defensively, both teams need some help, as the Leafs are the sixth-worst team in expected goals against this season.
Toronto and Vegas both own elite top-sixes, and against a soft defensive shell, we should see a ton of goals tonight. The numbers point toward the Over, and we're not going against the grain.
COVERS INTEL: Two of the NHL's best power-play units collide tonight. Both the Knights and Leafs rank inside the Top 5 in high-danger shots and expected goals for with the man advantage. 
Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights combo
Mitch Marner against his former team? It would feel like a missed opportunity by omitting him from our combo tonight.
Marner quarterbacks the first power-play unit and is averaging over 20 minutes of ice time. With some of the best vision in the NHL, and the Leafs failing to suppress high-danger opportunities, Marner will find the scoresheet.
Elsewhere, Gavin McKenna saw his ice time tick up against the Nashville Predators, a game in which he not only recorded his first goal, but also his first multi-point night. With plenty of opportunity coming his way and a game projected for Over 6.5 goals, McKenna stays hot.
Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights combo
- Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5
- Gavin McKenna 1+ point
- Mitch Marner 1+ assist
Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights player prop: Gavin McKenna 1+ points
How can we not back the rookie after his performance against the Predators? He got the monkey off his back with his first NHL goal while recording an assist for good measure. It was easily his best game of the season, and we're here to ride that momentum into the team's first road trip.
With McKenna playing alongside John Tavares and William Nylander, with offensive fireworks expected, we'll take this at 45% every night of the week.
Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights goal scorer: Auston Matthews
Here we have yet another opportunity to ride the hot hand. Coming off a four-point night, Auston Matthews is 22nd in the NHL in expected goals at even strength and 21st in high-danger shots on the power play. He'll have his chances tonight, especially when you consider the Knights are middle-of-the-pack in expected goals against.
I'd play this up to 40%.
- Top picks: 2-2, -0.05 units
- Combos: 2-2, +0.36 units
Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Maple Leafs 39% | Golden Knights 62%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (51%) | Under 6.5 (51%)
- Spread: Maple Leafs +1.5 (62%) | Golden Knights -1.5 (39%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights trend
The Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nev. |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCRIPPS, TSN4 |
Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
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