Sunday’s London showdown at Wembley Stadium kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET, with Jacksonville favored by 2.5 points.
My Texans vs. Jaguars prop picks attack Jacksonville’s vulnerable pass defense with C.J. Stroud and Xavier Hutchinson, while Bhayshul Tuten’s rushing total offers a compelling fade spot.
Check out more NFL picks for Week 6.
Best Texans vs Jaguars props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 C.J. Stroud 250+ passing yards |
55% |
| Xavier Hutchinson 15+ receiving yards |
54% |
 Bhayshul Tuten Under 59.5 rushing yards |
47% |
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Prop pick #1: C.J. Stroud 250+ passing yards
If I'm a Houston Texans fan, I'm pumped about how C.J. Stroud has bounced back from his brutal playoff performance last season. Stroud has thrown for 261+ yards in four of five games this year.
He hasn't thrown an interception this season and has the second-highest aDOT in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). In other words, Stroud is attacking downfield without putting the ball in harm's way very often.
The Texans may need another big game from him Sunday because their ground attack ranks 31st in rushing yards per game. That should increase Stroud's workload against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense ranked 30th in passing yards allowed per game.
I'd play Stroud's passing prop up to 255+ yards.
Prop pick #2: Xavier Hutchinson 15+ receiving yards
Obviously, Texans WR Xavier Hutchinson's 15+ receiving-yards prop correlates with my Stroud pick above, and it's playable up to 18+ yards.
Hutchinson is tied for the team lead with 31 targets while averaging 46.2 receiving yards per game, so this is a pretty low bar relative to his current role.
Houston traded for Stroud's former college teammate, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who makes his team debut Sunday. Harrison should eventually eat into Hutchinson's target share, but I still expect Hutchinson to get enough looks this week.
Per PFF, Hutchinson ranks 27th among 115 qualified wide receivers. He also works from the slot, and Jacksonville nickelback Jourdan Lewis has a failing coverage grade.
Prop pick #3: Bhayshul Tuten Under 59.5 rushing yards
Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten's rushing prop looks too high for this matchup, and I'd play the Under down to 57.5 yards.
This is the second-highest rushing number he's had all season, trailing only last week's 65.5 against Philadelphia. The matchup is much tougher on Sunday.
Houston ranks third in yards per rush allowed, and I'm also taking the Texans to win this game. If Houston plays from ahead, Jacksonville may have to move away from the run in the second half.
That gives me two paths to cashing the Under: the Texans can limit Tuten's efficiency, or the game script can cut into his carries.
- Prop picks: 11-16, -5.71 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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