Our Week 6 prop picks spotlight the best opportunities ahead of Sunday's action, headlined by Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott airing it out under the prime-time lights at Lambeau Field.
Check out our NFL picks for more predictions and analysis ahead of another loaded slate.
Week 6 prop picks at a glance
| Matchup & kickoff | Prop pick & analyst |
|---|---|
| Texans vs. Jaguars Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET |
Woody Marks 15+ rushing attempts Neil Parker |
| Bears vs. Falcons Sunday, 1 p.m. ET |
Bijan Robinson o89.5 rushing yards Quinn Allen |
| Ravens vs. Browns Sunday, 1 p.m. ET |
Derrick Henry o88.5 rushing yards Tom Oldfield |
| Titans vs. Colts Sunday, 1 p.m. ET |
Tony Pollard 60+ rushing yards Geoff Clark |
| Jets vs. Patriots Sunday, 1 p.m. ET |
Drake Maye 225+ passing yards Ed Scimia |
| Saints vs. Giants Sunday, 1 p.m. ET |
Malik Nabers 70+ receiving yards Geoff Clark |
| Panthers vs. Eagles Sunday, 1 p.m. ET |
Bryce Young 2+ TD passes Shawn Krest |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers Sunday, 1 p.m. ET |
Emeka Egbuka 40+ receiving yards Geoff Clark |
| Cardinals vs. Rams Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET |
Tyler Higbee 30+ receiving yards Geoff Clark |
| Chargers vs. Chiefs Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET |
Xavier Worthy o4.5 receptions Sam Farley |
| Bills vs. Raiders Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET |
Mike Washington Jr. 15+ rushing yards Neil Parker |
| Cowboys vs. Packers Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET |
Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards Jason Logan |
| Commanders vs. 49ers Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET |
Brock Purdy 20+ rushing yards Josh Inglis |
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Expert NFL prop picks
Texans vs. Jaguars
- Kickoff: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (Wembley Stadium, London)
- TV: NFL Network
- Analyst: Neil Parker
Prop pick: Woody Marks 15+ rushing attempts
In addition to the highlighted case for Marks, I’m also expecting the Houston offense to look to attack on the ground more this week to help mitigate a Jacksonville pass rush ranking seventh in pressure percentage.
Houston has the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback when pressured, and QB C.J. Stroud has a 46.2 completion percentage for just 4.8 yards per attempt under pressure, after all.
Additionally, after rushing 40.6% of the time for 27.9 attempts per game in 2025, the Texans have only rushed on 34.7% of their offensive plays for 23.4 carries to start 2026.
This prop is in play up to 56%.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Check out our full Texans vs. Jaguars predictions!
Bears vs. Falcons
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Quinn Allen
Prop pick: Bijan Robinson Over 89.5 rushing yards
Play up to 58%.
As I previously discussed, Robinson has been one of the best running backs in the league. He's averaging 116 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. The Bears haven't been horrible against the run by traditional metrics, but they rank 24th in EPA allowed per rush, and without some important defensive pieces, slowing Robinson becomes that much harder.
He's cleared this number in two of his last three outings and finished just four yards shy of 90 in Week 5 against Baltimore. With Atlanta leaning heavily on its ground game, Robinson should see enough volume to make another run at 90+ yards.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Check out our full Bears vs. Falcons predictions!
Ravens vs. Browns
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Tom Oldfield
Prop pick: Derrick Henry Over 88.5 rushing yards
The Ravens have handed Henry a heavy workload once again this season - he leads the league with 113 carries while averaging 95.2 YPG on the ground, and yet there's room for more with Jackson sidelined.
This AFC North duel is a favorable matchup for King Henry, too, with the Browns giving up 134 rushing yards last weekend in New York and dealing with injuries across the defensive line. I don't see that banged-up unit being a match for Baltimore's powerhouse RB, who sits third in the NFL in yards after contact (262).
Henry has gone past this O/U number in eight of his last 10 outings, and a run-heavy script should produce 20+ carries.
Check out our full Ravens vs. Browns predictions!
Titans vs. Colts
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Prop pick: Tony Pollard 60+ rushing yards
Running back Tony Pollard's rushing-yards prop is set against a Colts defense that ranks last in the NFL in rushing EPA per play allowed and run-stop win rate, according to ESPN.
Pollard has cleared his rushing-yards prop in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 77.3 rushing yards per contest during that stretch.
With Tennessee expected to keep Sunday's game competitive, Pollard should see more carries as the Titans look to establish the run against Indy's struggling defense.
Check out our full Titans vs. Colts predictions!
Jets vs. Patriots
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Ed Scimia
Prop pick: Drake Maye 225+ passing yards
Drake Maye has found his groove over the past two weeks, throwing for 643 yards and seven touchdowns in the pair of games. This follows 13 regular-season games in which he threw for 225+ yards.
The Jets will keep Maye from scoring at will, but they aren't incredible against the pass, ranking 12th in EPA per passing attempt (-0.06). This total is extremely manageable, especially in what should be a close game that keeps Maye passing into the fourth quarter.
I like Maye to get to 225+ passing yards at 60% or lower.
Check out our full Jets vs. Patriots predictions!
Saints vs. Giants
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Prop pick: Malik Nabers 70+ receiving yards
New York WR Malik Nabers is on a heater right now, and his 70+ receiving yards prop is good up to 74+ yards. Nabers has 17 catches on 27 targets for 233 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games.
All five of New Orleans's starting defensive backs have a failing grade at Pro Football Focus. The Saints rank 26th in defensive dropback EPA per play and 27th in defensive success rate, per RBSDM.com.
Between NOLA's bad secondary and QB Jameis Winston building trust with him, I'm predicting Nabers has a big game for a third consecutive week.
Check out our full Saints vs. Giants predictions!
Panthers vs. Eagles
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Shawn Krest
Prop pick: Bryce Young 2+ touchdown passes
Young and the Panthers both lead the NFL in passing, and the quarterback has been going deep successfully more than at any time in his career.
He has 17 completions of 20+ yards through four games—he had 39 all last year. He also has multiple touchdown passes in three of his four games this season, just the second time he’s had a stretch like that in his four-year NFL career.
The Eagles have given up multiple touchdown passes to three of the five quarterbacks they’ve faced, including Case Keenum, and 300+ yards to two of them.
Check out our full Panthers vs. Eagles predictions!
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Prop pick: Emeka Egbuka 40+ receiving yards
The Over for Tampa Bay WR Emeka Egbuka's receiving prop is good up to 42+ yards. Egbuka has gone Over his receiving-yards prop in three of his five games this season and has become rookie QB Jalon Daniels' primary target.
He only had 38 receiving yards last week against the Dallas Cowboys, but Egbuka's nine targets were four more than the next closest Buccaneer. More importantly, Pittsburgh's defense is 29th in average yards of separation allowed per target, according to Pro.NFL.com.
Check out our full Steelers vs. Buccaneers predictions!
Cardinals vs. Rams
- Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Prop pick: Tyler Higbee 30+ receiving yards
The Over for Tyler Higbee's receiving prop has value up to 42+ yards.
Higbee has topped 62 receiving yards in three straight games and caught five of six targets for 91 yards and a touchdown in his only meeting with Arizona last season.
Even with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams commanding targets, Higbee leads the Rams with a 117.3 QB rating when targeted.
Arizona has also allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, giving Higbee another favorable spot to stay hot.
Check out our full Cardinals vs. Rams predictions!
Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Sam Farley
Prop pick: Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 receptions
It still feels like things haven't really worked out for Xavier Worthy at the Chiefs yet, but they clearly believe in him because they keep trying to get the ball into his hands.
In their last game, he caught four of seven targets for an impressive 115 air yards. He's had six or more targets in all but one game this season, and with Rice sidelined, he should get a lot of targets on Sunday.
Check out our full Chargers vs. Chiefs predictions!
Bills vs. Raiders
- Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Analyst: Neil Parker
Prop pick: Mike Washington Jr. 15+ rushing yards
Vegas head coach Klint Kubiak said Mike Washington Jr. wasn’t given enough opportunities in Week 5, and Buffalo has allowed the fourth-highest rushing success rate while ranking 19th in rush defense DVOA.
With nothing scary about the matchup, I’d back Washington to record 15 or more rushing yards to 56% because he’s averaged 5.0 yards per tote with a rock-solid 3.36 yards after contact per carry.
Check out our full Bills vs. Raiders predictions!
Cowboys vs. Packers
- Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
- Analyst: Jason Logan
Prop pick: Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards
Given the growing Over/Under and Dallas' pass-positive game script as road underdogs, Dak Prescott will have plenty of opportunities to go Over his passing yard total on SNF.
Player projections aren’t overly bullish on Prescott, ranging from 260.5 to 275 yards in Week 6, but this matchup with the Packers lines up great for Dak.
New Green Bay defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon runs zone coverage almost exclusively, and Prescott is among the best QBs in the land at picking apart zones (No. 3 passer rating vs. zone), with two zone-busting WRs in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Those star wideouts could face a Packers secondary short on bodies, with defensive backs Keisean Nixon and Benjamin St-Juste questionable and strong safety Evan Williams dealing with an illness.
The Packers’ defensive prowess is skewed, given their QB competition. Green Bay has played three of its five games against backups (Vikings, Bucs, and Bears). Prescott will be by far the best passer the Packers have faced.
Check out our full Cowboys vs. Packers predictions!
Commanders vs. 49ers
- Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN/ABC
- Analyst: Josh Inglis
Prop pick: Brock Purdy 20+ rushing yards
Brock Purdy is 4-1 O/U on his rushing total this season and closed with a line of 25.5 yards last week. He's rushed for 29+ yards in all four Overs and projects for 29.4 yards on the ground Monday night, making 20+ yards at 44% the best +EV prop in this game. I'd buy it up to 54%.
The Commanders are allowing 19.4 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, the seventh-highest mark in the league. Jameis Winston (27 yards on a 2.5-yard total), Dak Prescott (26 yards on a 12.5-yard total), and Jalen Hurts (46 yards on a 30.5-yard total) all set season-high rushing marks against this defense, beating their closing rushing totals by an average of 17 yards. Purdy currently ranks sixth at his position in scramble yards and fifth in designed runs.
Check out our full Commanders vs. 49ers predictions!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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