NFL Survivor Pools took a dose of Ozempic last Sunday, with losses from the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers drastically slimming the remaining field.
Covers’ $10K Pro Football Survivor Pool has been whittled down from more than 4,500 entries to just a select few heading into a tricky Week 11 slate.
Eleven of the 15 games have spreads shorter than six points, and more than half of those are currently pegged at a field goal or shorter.
If you still have one of the teams laying the lumber in Week 11, this might be the best time to burn them. Though we’ve seen “safer” selections go down in flames over the past month.
Here is my best NFL Week 11 Survivor Pool pick as well as the safest option, according to the NFL odds.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 11
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots
My pick: Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: vs. Chicago Bears
Moneyline odds: -165 (62.26% implied win probability)
Chicago was my Week 10 pick, barely getting past the Giants, and now I’m going against the Bears as they travel to Minnesota in Week 11.
The Vikings' defense is a jump in competition for Chicago. The Bears beat up some dismal stop units during their successful run, edging New York, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Washington, Las Vegas, and Dallas.
Minnesota brings a ton of blitz and has generated the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL. That should have Chicago QB Caleb Williams spinning like a top in the backfield, leading to arrant throws and interceptions.
Obviously, this is a riskier selection in Week 11, but the Vikings are a smart team to burn with less future value than some other options. Minnesota is either on the road or an underdog — or both — in many remaining games.
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Safest pick: New England Patriots
Opponent: vs. New York Jets
Moneyline odds: -800 (88.89% implied win probability)
As mentioned, the tight Week 11 board could be a good spot to use up a hefty favorite. And no team is plumper with win probability than the New England Patriots.
New England welcomes the rival New York Jets to Gillette Stadium on Thursday Night Football. New York is coming off just its second victory of the season, yet it managed to do so with only 169 yards on offense.
Gang Green takes on another stiff defense in the Patriots, who are the hottest team in the NFL right now. Not only are Mike Vrabel’s guys slamming the door on opponents, but Drake Maye and the offense are letting it rip with a deadly downfield attack.
These mid-week games do breed strange results, and we just saw an AFC East favorite lose outright as the “safest pick” in Week 10. But the Jets are really, really bad. Really.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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