One of the biggest angles that we're going to be hearing about in the lead-up to Super Bowl 56 is the matchup between the Rams' lethal pass rush and the Bengals' brutal pass protection. Cincinnati's inability to protect Joe Burrow has been an issue throughout the playoffs, and should L.A. cover as the Super Bowl odds favorite, its pass rush will be a big part of its success.
We find the best NFL betting value on the Super Bowl player prop market for that narrative, as we focus on Rams sack artist Leonard Floyd, who has been flying a bit under the radar.
Super Bowl 56 to record a sack odds
| Player | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Donald (Los Angeles) | -192 | +150 |
| Von Miller (Los Angeles) | -168 | +132 |
| Trey Hendrickson (Cincinnati) | -138 | +108 |
| Leonard Floyd (Los Angeles) | +130 | -168 |
| Sam Hubbard (Cincinnati) | +170 | -220 |
| Greg Gaines (Los Angeles) | +192 | -260 |
| Travin Howard (Los Angeles) | +280 | -400 |
| Troy Reeder (Los Angeles) | +300 | -430 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of February 4, 2022.
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Leonard Floyd total sacks pick
- Floyd to record a sack (+130)
Pick made on February 4, 2022.
In case you haven't heard, the Bengals' offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL and has been the team's Achilles' Heel. Cincinnati allowed 55 sacks during the regular season with the second-worst adjusted sack rate. Joe Burrow ate dirt a whopping nine times by the Titans in the Divisional Round and while he was only sacked once against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, he was often hurried and hit.
The Rams finished the regular season with the third-most sacks (50) in the league and had the best pass rush win rate. The biggest names from the Rams' front are three-time DPOY winner Aaron Donald and eight-time Pro Bowler Von Miller. However, with Donald installed at -192 and -168 for Miller, the best value might lie with sometimes forgotten Leonard Floyd.
Floyd has racked up 20 sacks and 37 QB hits during his first two seasons with L.A. and has benefitted from plenty of one-on-one matchups, with Aaron Donald garnering attention up the middle. Floyd also tends to line up on the left side, going up against the opposing right tackle. Cincinnati has the serviceable Jonah Williams at left tackle but on the right side, it has Isaiah Prince protecting the edge.
Prince took over as the full-time right tackle in Week 12 after starter Riley Reiff suffered a season-ending injury, and he has a pass-blocking grade of just 51.4 since then according to Pro Football Focus. Expect Floyd to expose the young lineman on Super Bowl Sunday and back him to record a sack at plus money.
