Talk about two different trajectories for two of the premier teams in the NFC heading into Thursday Night Football’s Week 13 odds. The Dallas Cowboys are on a 5-1 run and looking like one of the most well-rounded teams in the league while the Seattle Seahawks just got pants’d on Thanksgiving by the San Francisco 49ers to put them on a 1-3 skid.
The TNF odds see this as a complete mismatch, with the Cowboys as 9-point home favorites, and the difference in quarterback play has got to be the main reason why. One of these passers has an appetizing matchup, but the other may be in for a long night.
Seahawks vs Cowboys TNF props
- Prescott Over 280.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Smith Under 224.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Cooks Over 3.5 receptions (+135 at bet365)
Picks made on November 29 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Seahawks vs Cowboys TNF props
Prop bet #1: Backing Dak
Not enough is being made of the level Dak Prescott is playing at right now. The Cowboys' two-time Pro Bowler should be in the Top 3 of the NFL MVP odds conversation, but sits fourth, fifth, and even sixth at some books.
The former fourth-round pick has the sixth-most passing yards (2,935), second-most touchdown passes (23), and second-highest completion percentage (70%) in the NFL. Prescott isn’t just putting up counting numbers either, he’s one of the most efficient passers in the NFL, sitting second in EPA per play, third in success rate, and sixth in CPOE.
He’s been even better since Week 6, with 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions over a six-game span, ranking first in EPA per play. Now, the Seahawks are on his warpath and in a position to get fried.
While 281 passing yards is a hefty number on a short week, he’s averaging 312.3 passing yards per game since Week 6 and has gone Over this week’s total of 280.5 in four of his last six outings. This is also a Seahawks defense that has struggled more and more as the season’s gone on.
On the year, Pete Carroll and Clint Hurtt’s defense is 20th in EPA per play and 14th in EPA per dropback, but since Week 8, they’re 29th in EPA per play and 21st in EPA per dropback. So, while they’re only allowing 230.7 passing yards per game this season, 22nd in the NFL, they’ve been far worse lately.
It got so bad against the 49ers last Thursday night that last year’s rookie phenom Riq Woolen appeared to be benched at one point and ended up playing just 39% of the snaps. With CeeDee Lamb playing like a Top-5 receiver, Brandin Cooks starting to shine, and the emergence of Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys certainly have the guns to get after an uneven Seattle secondary.
They can find mismatches with Ferguson and Tony Pollard to take advantage of linebacker Bobby Wagner, who is allowing a 114.6 QB rating when targeted, and go after safety Julian Love, who has allowed a team-high 431 yards.
Playing arguably the best football of his career, the offensive line keeping him clean, and enough weapons to complement Lamb, we should see the Over on Dak Prescott odds for this market.
Dak Prescott prop: Over 280.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Smith slippin
Unlike Prescott, Geno Smith odds haven’t been as profitable in recent weeks, while he deals with an elbow injury. He’s having a tough follow-up season after winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year last year, but had shown flashes of what made him special last season.
However, it’s been a lot of inconsistency overall for Smith, who’s 22nd in EPA per play this season having been all over the map on a week-to-week basis. In 11 starts this season, he’s thrown for less than 200 yards in more games (four) than he has for over 300 yards (three). And in his last seven games, he’s thrown for as many touchdowns as he has interceptions (seven apiece).
After averaging 251.9 passing yards per game last season, that number has dipped down to 234.9 per game this season. He’s gone Under 224.5 passing yards in five of his 11 starts, including last week against the 49ers where he ended up with just 180 and his elbow was clearly ailing him.
This is also a Cowboys defense that hasn’t messed around this season and sits third in EPA per play and third in EPA per dropback. Dan Quinn’s unit has been even better lately, jumping up to first in EPA per play and first in EPA per dropback since Week 7.
They’re holding opposing teams to just 167.2 passing yards per game and are fourth in the league in interceptions (12), fourth in completion percentage allowed (60%), and fourth in sacks (37).
Both Cowboys starting cornerbacks, DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore, have held opposing QBs to a rating of under 66 this season when targeted and in 10 games, only three quarterbacks have thrown for more than 224.5 passing yards against them — Sam Howell, Brock Purdy, and Justin Herbert.
Geno Smith prop: Under 224.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Let him cook
The dominance of Prescott and Lamb has coincided with Brandin Cooks emerging as the No. 2 receiver the Cowboys hoped he would when they acquired him from the Houston Texans.
The former first-round pick got off to a slow start with his new team, but he’s no stranger to fitting in on the fly, having topped 1,000 yards in a season for four different franchises. Despite his lack of impact early on, Brandin Cooks look a lot more appealing given his involvement since Week 6.
In his last six games, he’s put up 396 yards from scrimmage on 26 touches, including going Over 3.5 receptions in three of those games; he’s done it four times in 10 games this season. He’s averaging 3.3 receptions per game this season on 4.8 targets, but since Week 6 those averages jump up to four receptions per game while still averaging 4.8 targets.
It speaks to the way head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer have made a concentrated effort to get Cooks the ball, on top of Prescott just playing at a brilliant level right now.
With the Seahawks focusing in on Lamb, who will see a combo of Woolen out wide and rookie Devon Witherspoon in the slot, Cooks can take advantage of Tre Brown or Michael Jackson anytime he’s out wide.
For his career, Cooks has averaged 4.6 receptions per game across 142 NFL games, including 4.3 per game last season for a lowly Houston Texans team.
Brandin Cooks prop: Over 3.5 receptions (+135 at bet365)
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