A pair of NFC teams heading in opposite direction will meet this evening at AT&T Stadium to kick off the Week 13 odds slate as the Dallas Cowboys host the Seattle Seahawks as 9-point favorites according to NFL odds.
Should bettors fade the Seattle offense with Geno Smith likely under pressure for a second straight week and their disadvantage at tackle heading into a meeting with Micah Parsons?
I break down the TNF odds and offer my free NFL picks for the Seahawks vs. Cowboys on November 30.
You can also check out our TNF player prop picks and Dak Prescott spotlight props for more great bets!
Seahawks vs Cowboys odds
Seahawks vs Cowboys predictions
This is shaping up to be a bad game for the Seattle Seahawks' passing game. It's one of the weakest O-lines at right tackle as the addition of Justin Peters proved, and having to face Micah Parsons and this Dallas Cowboys pass rush is going to be an issue on Thursday.
Last week vs. the 49ers, Geno Smith took six sacks and had 12 QB hits. He finished with just 180 passing yards in a game that featured a lot of negative script, and bettors could see similar results this week.
Right tackle Abe Lucas could return, but he's been on the IR since Week 2... and this would be a tough spot to throw him into if he isn’t at 100%. So for me, I’m looking to pick my best spot to fade the Seattle offense. I like its team total Under 19.5, Smith Under passing at 229.5 or better, as well as DK Metcalf’s Under 59.5 receiving yards.
Last week, all three Seattle wide receivers combined for 103 receiving yards while DK Metcalf struggled with separation and needed nine targets for 32 yards. He only managed to catch three of those balls as Smith threw into coverage all day when he wasn't getting hit with a 22% aggressive rate, meaning more than 1-in-5 balls were thrown with less than one yard of separation.
Only five other QBs had a worse passer rating last week than Geno.
With other places sitting as low as 56.5, Metcalf Under 59.5 yards is a good early-week bet. Jaxson Smith-Njigba is running 90% of the routes and it'll be tough to get deep routes when Seattle will struggle to protect again. Things could boil over Thursday too for the Seahawks. They're in a 1-3 straight-up stretch and have a tough schedule ahead. Metcalf could diva his way out of the game as well. All outs, no matter how improbable, are good outs.
This number closed at 60.5 last week but was also 55.5 vs. the Ravens in Week 9 and 50.5 vs. the Browns in Week 8.
My best bet: DK Metcalf Under 59.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Seahawks vs Cowboys same-game parlay
D.K. Metcalf Under 59.5 receiving yards
Tony Pollard Over 19.5 receiving yards
Dak Prescott 3+ passing touchdowns
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My ideal game script is Dallas dominates the time of possession as Seattle struggles with penalties and pressure off the edge. That will keep Metcalf in a similar script as last week where he had just three grabs.
Dak's MVP run starts Thursday in prime time. Since his bye, the Dallas QB has thrown for three or more TDs four times as Pollard struggles to score in the red zone with just three scores on 40 RZ rush attempts.
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Seahawks vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis
The Cowboys sat as 6.5-point favorites on the look-ahead and bettors have been piling on the early in the week, moving this line to as far as -9.5 in some places as of Tuesday.
It’s hard to get excited about this Seattle offense. Kenneth Walker is questionable again with an oblique injury and rookie Zach Charbonnett didn’t do much last week with the start totaling 58 yards on 18 touches.
Smith looked uncomfortable working his way back from an arm injury, and this offense had negative net passing yards heading into the second quarter. Smith took six sacks last week and could be in for another rough outing.
This is also a Dallas defense that has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher, a 100-yard receiver, or a 350-yard passer. Even if the Cowboys don’t dominate this game defensively, the Seahawks can shoot themselves in the foot just fine.
Seattle leads all of football in penalties per game over the last three games at 8.3, while its 73 penalty yards per game over that stretch ranks second last. The Seahawks could easily be entering this game on a four-game losing streak but they snuck out a 29-26 win over the Commanders who were just embarrassed by the Cowboys last week. Seattle also has to look ahead to Philadelphia and San Francisco on the schedule over the following two weeks.
There could be a similar late movement on this line just like we saw last week in the Dallas game. I can’t see the Seahawks doing much offensively here with their issues at right tackle, and with Smith who has an identical passer rating as Will Levis, per Next Gen Stats.
The total has moved up a full point from the look-ahead line. It’s an indoor game with a Dallas team that runs at a slow pace in neutral context ranking 22nd, while the Seahawks do play faster ranking ninth.
My main worry with Overs in long-spread games is the trailing team needs to score touchdowns and turn the ball over on downs in its attempts to find the end zone. Bettors saw it with Green Bay vs. Detroit last week and although it did go Over, it was sweaty for a game that had a live total of 62.5 at one point. I’m off this total at 46 but do like the Seattle team total Under at 19.5.
Seahawks vs Cowboys betting trend to know
The Seahawks have only hit the second-half game total Over in six of their last 18 games (-7.55 Units / -38% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Seahawks vs. Cowboys.
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Seahawks vs Cowboys game info
|AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
|Thursday, November 30, 2023
|8:15 p.m. ET
|Amazon Prime Video
|Cowboys -6.5, 45.5 O/U
Seahawks vs Cowboys latest injuries
Seahawks vs Cowboys weather
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