There’s not much but pride on the line (and maybe the OROY award) when the Atlanta Falcons host the New Orleans Saints in a Week 18 finale.
I break down the opening odds and early moves as well as give my leans, early Saints vs. Falcons predictions, and NFL picks for Sunday, January 4.
Saints vs Falcons predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Saints vs Falcons spread pick: Saints +3
The New Orleans Saints are playing their best football of the season down the stretch, bringing a four-game winning streak into Week 18.
New Orleans has quietly been among the stronger defenses in the NFL all season, ranking No. 9 in EPA allowed per play and No. 13 in Defensive DVOA at FTN. And now the offense is finally complementing the stop unit.
The Saints have scored 20, 24, 29, and 34 points over the past four victories and rank No. 9 in EPA per dropback since Week 14.
Rookie QB Tyler Shough has really found his form and is giving NOLA a downfield attack that wasn’t there earlier in the year. He’s put himself in the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation, and a big finish to the season could secure the award.
The Atlanta Falcons are on a short week after playing on Monday and are ripe for a letdown spot after a thrilling win over the Rams. That was especially sweet for head coach Raheem Morris, who was the Rams' defensive coordinator before taking the job with the Falcons.
If you like the Saints, you could wait and see if recency bias raises this spread to +3.5, but don’t wait too long. If you see the vig on Atlanta -3 start to slim, snatch up the field goal with the road dog and avoid a move to +2.5.
Early Saints vs Falcons total pick: Under 43.5
As mentioned, the Saints defense has been the team's beating heart all season.
New Orleans is very tough against the run, but it did allow 121 rushing yards to Atlanta in their first meeting back in late November. During this four-game winning streak, NOLA has been equally strong against the pass and sits No. 3 in EPA allowed since Week 14. On the season, the Saints are 5-10-1 Over/Under.
The Falcons scored 27 points in the upset win over the Rams on Monday but were helped along by three interceptions from Matthew Stafford. Atlanta returned one of those picks for a touchdown and enjoyed good starting field position.
The Falcons defense plays a high rate of zone, which protects against deeper shots, and sends extra bodies after the QB at the second-highest clip in the NFL. Shough won’t have much time for big plays to develop, as he plays behind an offensive line ranked 30th in pass block win rate.
These NFC South foes played to a 24-10 Atlanta win in November, which stayed short of the closing total of 40.5 points. I feel like we won’t see many more points in Week 18.
Saints vs Falcons odds
- Saints vs. Falcons spread: Falcons -3
- Saints vs. Falcons moneyline: Saints +138, Falcons -164
- Saints vs. Falcons Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Saints vs Falcons
- Saints vs. Falcons matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Atlanta, GA
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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