The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card round on Saturday.
This year may look like Josh Allen's best path to the Super Bowl, but my Bills vs. Jaguars predictions don't think he'll get past the opening round.
Here are my best NFL picks for this playoff clash on Sunday, January 11.
Bills vs Jaguars prediction
Bills vs Jaguars Best bet: Jaguars +1.5 (-120)
The Buffalo Bills are small road favorites, but they really shouldn't be since the Jacksonville Jaguars enter the playoffs red-hot, going 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games.
The Jaguars finished the regular season with one more win than Buffalo, despite facing a tougher schedule, and are also slightly higher in the DVOA ratings.
Jacksonville is fifth in the league in defensive EPA and has been strong against both the run and pass. On the other side of the ball, Travis Etienne will churn out yards against a Bills run defense that is near the bottom of the league in every metric.
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Bills vs Jaguars same-game parlay
The Bills are just 31st in the league in defensive rush EPA and DVOA. Etienne finished the regular season with 1107 rushing yards, and the Jags will lean on their ground game to keep Buffalo's explosive offense off the field.
Josh Allen's passing numbers wildly fluctuate due to game script and weather conditions. Since we have the Jags covering, Allen will have a neutral or negative game script, and this is the nicest weather he's played in since Week 12.
Bills vs Jaguars SGP
- Jaguars +1.5
- Travis Etienne Jr. Over 64.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen Over 225.5 passing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Jaguars dominate on the ground
Jags QB Trevor Lawrence has scored nine touchdowns in his last 13 games and isn't afraid to run in high-leverage situations.
Bills vs Jaguars SGP
- Jaguars +1.5
- Travis Etienne Jr. Over 64.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen Over 225.5 passing yards
- Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown
Bills vs Jaguars odds
- Spread: Bills -1.5 (-102) | Jaguars +1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Bills -110 | Jaguars -106
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Bills vs Jaguars moneyline prediction
Since I'm taking the Jags on the small +1.5 spread, I'd also be willing to bet them on the moneyline. After all, they have the better defense and home-field advantage against a Bills squad that can't stop the run.
Score prediction: Jaguars 25, Bills 24
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bills vs Jaguars trend to know
The Bills have gone 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Jaguars.
How to watch Bills vs Jaguars
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date | Sunday, January 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Bills vs Jaguars latest injuries
Bills vs Jaguars weather
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