“Beware of quarterbacks in their first playoff start.”
Ahead of Drake Maye’s first postseason appearance, the stats and records making the rounds set the stage as the New England Patriots host the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round.
While history may not be on Maye’s side, my Chargers vs. Patriots predictions aren't discounting the MVP hopeful — at least not when it comes to his ability to make plays with his legs.
Here are my best NFL picks for Sunday, January 11.
Chargers vs Patriots prediction
Chargers vs Patriots best bet: Drake Maye Over 25.5 rushing yards (-114)
Drake Maye showcased his running ability this season, rushing for 450 yards.
However, as playoff chances improved, his propensity to run dwindled as the New England Patriots worried more about protecting their passer.
Early on, he recorded seven or more carries in seven of his first 10 games, but that number has dropped to once in the last seven.
That changes Sunday. Against a tough Los Angeles Chargers defense, Maye will be forced to escape the pocket more, with rushing projections sitting as high as 31 yards.
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Chargers vs Patriots SNF same-game parlay
The Patriots hosting this Wild Card game is significant, with Los Angeles having to travel and play in the chilly conditions at Gillette Stadium. This feels like a lower-scoring, grind-it-out affair, but I see New England squeaking through.
Maye’s rushing total is tempered due to the Pats playing it safe with his carries down the stretch. He won’t hold back when it comes to taking off on Sunday.
The last time the Patriots played in a “postseason-like” game, Maye rushed for two touchdowns against the Bills in Week 15.
Chargers vs Patriots SGP
- Patriots moneyline
- Drake Maye Over 25.5 rushing yards
- Drake Maye anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: QB or Not QB
Maye will see his rushing attempts climb back to early-season rates when he was running for big gains.
The Bolts are very stingy in the red zone, so Maye will have to do it himself.
Justin Herbert isn’t afraid to tuck and run with almost 500 yards on the ground this season.
A QB keeper on the goal line is possible against one of the softest red-zone defenses in the NFL.
Chargers vs Patriots SGP
- Drake Maye Over 25.5 rushing yards
- Drake Maye anytime touchdown
- Justin Herbert Over 29.5 rushing yards
- Justin Herbert anytime touchdown
Chargers vs Patriots odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +3.5 (-110) | New England -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +170 | New England -205
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
Chargers vs Patriots betting trend to know
The Chargers were 3-5 ATS in true road games this season, averaging a -0.2 margin of victory on the road. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Patriots.
How to watch Chargers vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA |
| Date | Sunday, January 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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