All games this late in the season are big for playoff implications, and this week is no different when the New England Patriots travel to face off against the Las Vegas Raiders.
New England sits just outside the playoffs, one game back from the final spot in the AFC. Most prognosticators currently give the Patriots about a coin-flip chance of making the postseason. They come into this matchup off a short week and a Monday Night Football win over the Arizona Cardinals.
It's been a rough season for the Raiders. Sure they've won three of the last four games, but they enter this matchup with a record they didn't expect. This was a team that many thought would be playoff bound for the season and have massively disappointed instead.
What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for the Patriots vs. Raiders on December 17.
Patriots vs Raiders best odds
Patriots vs Raiders picks and predictions
Las Vegas' defensive coordinator Patrick Graham started coaching with the Patriots and Belichick. That's not the best news for the Raiders.
In games against former assistants, Belichick and the Patriots have scored first in three of their last four. There is a pattern of New England being the more prepared team, and whatever happens in-game reflects the record.
What's so unique about this matchup is how much of the Raiders coaching staff has ties with New England. As it's been heavily documented, Raiders' head coach Josh McDaniels was once an offensive coordinator for the Patriots. In addition, there are also countless special assistants on the offensive side of the ball that also previously held positions with New England.
As a result, we have the advantage of the Pats' offense being best prepared to attack the Raiders' defense early on. We also have reason to think they'll be at an advantage when it comes to stopping them if they receive the opening kick.
The Raiders are running the same 3-4 defensive scheme that New England ran when Graham coached there in various roles. Vegas also runs the sixth-most man coverage in the NFL this season.
I'll talk about this more in the total breakdown, but I have some concerns about how well this New England offensive line will hold up. However, those issues become more problematic as the game goes on and not immediately.
Early in the game, I expect the Pats to do their best to attack one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They've allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the league this season and the third-most in the last three games.
I'm banking on Mac Jones and New England attacking that early with enough success to score first.
My best bet: Patriots to score first (-110 at FanDuel)
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Patriots vs Raiders spread analysis
From a motivational aspect, you have to like the Patriots, with the Raiders' playoff chances basically in the tank.
However, that's when Vegas played some of its best football, as the Raiders won in Denver and Seattle when their record was at an all-time season low.
You could say that this is where they mail it in, but questioning motivation is tricky in the NFL. This is a long way to say that I believe the Patriots are the better team, but the situational aspects (including a short week for New England) favor the Raiders in this spot.
Las Vegas is currently a 1.5-point favorite, signaling a game that could very well come down to a last-minute field goal. The spread opened with the Raiders at -2, so we've seen a small action on New England.
Patriots vs Raiders Over/Under analysis
I'll take a small play on the Under here. It's already dipped down half a point, but I'm still comfortable grabbing the widely available number of 44.5.
This feels like a game where the Raiders will want to pound the football as long as running back Josh Jacobs is healthy. The Raiders are 10th in rushing success rate and fifth in DVOA.
On the other end of the ball, the Patriots offensive line hasn't been great this season. They've only allowed an average amount of sacks, but that number has crept up as they've felt some attrition on the season.
In addition, New England has the fifth-worst power success rating in the NFL. As a result, there's a high likelihood that both of these teams will have a good amount of plays that go for negative yards.
The Patriots' defense is elite, and the Raiders will do their best to run against it. Conversely, the Raiders have enough talent with Max Crosby and Chandler Jones to give the New England leaky offensive line some issues.
Take the Under in this one.
Patriots vs Raiders betting trend to know
The Under 5-1 in the Patriots' last six games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Raiders.
Patriots vs Raiders game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, December 18, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Raiders -2, 45 |
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