The New England Patriots head to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 4 of NFL action on Sunday afternoon.
The Patriots will turn to Brian Hoyer at quarterback after officially ruling out Mac Jones with an ankle injury. Oddsmakers expect the Packers to roll over the Pats and their backup QB, with NFL betting lines installing Green Bay as 9.5-point home favorites.
Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Patriots vs. Packers on October 2.
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Patriots vs Packers best odds
Patriots vs Packers picks and predictions
This is a pretty big spread for a Packers team lacking explosive weapons. That said, Green Bay's strong stop-unit should be able to shut down the Patriots, who are stuck with Hoyer at quarterback.
The Patriots have had lots of success running the ball with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Still, the Packers will be able to focus on stopping the run since they won't fear Hoyer and this underwhelming group of receivers.
On offense, Aaron Rodgers has played very well in the last two games despite a subpar WR corps to work with. Rodgers has completed 76.7% of his passes with a QB rating of 115.2 in his last two games and threw for 255 yards last week against Tampa Bay's stingy defense.
He'll be helped by a strong ground game, as well as an offensive line that has gotten a boost with the recent returns of Pro-Bowl tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, who missed extensive time with injuries.
The Patriots weren't expected to have a great offense this season (even with Jones at the helm), but their defense has also regressed and currently ranks 26th in success rate with a defense DVOA rating that ranks 21st in the league. I'm laying the points with the Packers at home.
My best bet: Packers -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Patriots vs Packers spread analysis
The Packers lost their season opener to the Minnesota Vikings but have rebounded with back-to-back victories — most recently beating the Buccaneers 14-12 in a defensive battle last week.
The Patriots are fresh off a 37-26 loss to the Ravens. New England actually rolled up 447 yards of offense in that contest but turned the ball over four times, with Jones throwing three picks. Their defense was unable to contain Lamar Jackson, who had 218 yards through the air and another 107 on the ground.
That was the first game this season where the Pats offense was able to do anything after losing 20-7 to the Dolphins in Week 1 and edging the Steelers 17-14 in Week 2.
With Harris and Stevenson running behind a stout offensive line, the Pats are the top team in the NFL in rush DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. The Packers have a good running back duo of their own in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, ranking seventh in rush DVOA.
Rodgers is one of the top quarterbacks in the league, but he has to make do with an unimpressive WR corps after trading away Davante Adams in the offseason.
The Pats also had a subpar passing game even before losing Jones, and that aerial attack will be even worse with Hoyer under center. The journeyman backup last started a game in October of 2020, completing just 15 of 24 passes for 130 yards and an interception before getting replaced by Jarrett Stidhman in the fourth quarter.
With the Packers' defense second in the league in dropback success rate and ranking eighth in dropback EPA, they should be able to shut down Hoyer.
Patriots vs Packers Over/Under analysis
Even before Jones was officially ruled out, this was expected to be a low-scoring contest. After that news of Jones being out broke, the Over/Under dropped down to 39.5, which is currently tied for the lowest on the Week 4 slate.
These teams have two of the worst groups of receivers in the league. With that lack of talent out wide, it will be very tough for Hoyer and Rodgers to attack downfield.
Interestingly enough, both teams have been running the ball very well and have been brutal at stopping the run. It will be interesting to see whether these coaches load the box with an extra defender to nullify the threat on the ground.
Although Rodgers should be able to exploit such a strategy despite a lack of weapons at wide receiver (especially with safeties Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger listed as questionable), Hoyer would likely not be able to take advantage of that approach.
Patriots vs Packers betting trend to know
The Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games, while the Packers are 14-6 ATS in their previous 20 contests overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Packers.
Patriots vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, October 2, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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