Patriots vs Browns Prediction, Picks & Odds for Thursday's NFL Preseason Game

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: Aug 26, 2026 , 04:35 PM ET • 4 min read

Week 3 of the NFL preseason is the only time rival coaches will share their game plans with each other. The Patriots and Browns agreed not to play their starters, so Jason Logan sorts through what's left.

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New England Patriots quarterback Tommy DeVito NFL.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. New England Patriots quarterback Tommy DeVito.

Week 3 of preseason is unlike any other time of the NFL schedule.

When else would two rival coaches call each other and share their game plans?

That’s what we’re getting – or not getting – from the New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns in their exhibition finale Thursday night.

My Patriots vs. Browns predictions do their best to navigate the closing slate of preseason games, giving you my best NFL picks for Aug. 27.

Patriots vs Browns prediction

Pick Kalshi
Probability
Patriots ML 51%
Under 34.5 53%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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 TOP PICK

Who will win Patriots vs Browns: Patriots

Kalshi probability: 51%

New Cleveland Browns head coach Todd Monken told the media he talked to New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel before Thursday’s contest and the two agreed not to play their starters in this final preseason game.

That means Monken will not only sit QB1 Deshaun Watson but also backup Shedeur Sanders, opting for Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green to share snaps. 

Gabriel has thrown nine passes (completing five for just 23 yards) over 19 snaps in the first two preseason outings while Green is getting his first taste of summer work.

The Patriots go to QB2 Tommy DeVito and third-stringer Behren Morton, with the latter of the two likely get the bulk of snaps into the second half. 

That pair combined for 21-of-32 passing for 248 yards with two touchdowns in the Week 2 win over Philadelphia.

Knowing the starters aren’t going, New England’s QB situation provides some stability in a very unpredictable preseason slot.


Patriots vs Browns Over/Under pick: Under 34.5 

Kalshi probability: 53%

The offensive line for the Patriots took hits during the summer work and was running thin heading into Week 2, leading to four sacks allowed to the Eagles. 

Coach Vrabel is being very conscious of his team’s depth heading toward the regular season, so don’t expect better play from the pass protection and likely an uptick in handoffs after he ran 32 and 33 times in the preseason openers.

Cleveland is in a similar boat with injuries thinning out its depth this preseason. The Browns have struggled to score in the exhibition outings, amassing a collective 17 points in the first two games and the bulk of gains came with Watson and Sanders under center. 

Neither team wants to tip their hand when it comes to their playbooks, so expect a very vanilla set up from each offense. 

The Browns have finished Over the total in their first two 2026 preseason showings, but not due to their offense. The Patriots went Over in Week 2, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter.

Patriots vs Browns live odds

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Patriots vs Browns weather

The forecast for Cleveland calls for mostly clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s with winds barely blowing west at 6 mph. Weather won't have any impact Thursday night.

How to watch Patriots vs Browns

Location Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Date Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026
Kickoff 8 p.m. ET
TV Prime Video

Patriots vs Browns latest injuries

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst Jason Logan has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason's first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast at stations like WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio, Jason's analysis has also been featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers' flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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