Things are looking very ugly in Kansas City right now after the Chiefs have dropped three of their last four and four of their last six. That includes last week, during which Mahomes just completed 61.4% of his passes and threw an interception en route to a 20-14 loss to the Raiders.
In Week 17 odds, they will host the Cincinnati Bengals, who are looking for revenge after getting bounced by the Chiefs in last year's playoffs.
Can Mahomes and company finally turn things around or will the struggles continue for the two-time MVP and the Chiefs?
Continue reading as we break down Patrick Mahomes odds and offer our best free NFL picks and predictions for the Bengals vs Chiefs Week 17 matchup on Sunday, December 31st.
Be sure to also check out our Bengals vs Chiefs predictions for a full game breakdown.
Patrick Mahomes Week 17 prop picks
- Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 at bet365)
- Over 0.5 interceptions + Rashee Rice Over 63.5 receiving yards + Justin Watson Over 20.5 receiving yards (+500 at DraftKings)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patrick Mahomes Week 17 prop pick
Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 at bet365)
Things have not been pretty for Patrick Mahomes since the Week 11 bye for the Kansas City Chiefs. During that time he has completed just 64.5% of his passes for an average of just 249.3 yards per game and throwing to a 9:6 TD:INT ratio - all marks which would be career-lows for him as a full-time starter. The Chiefs have lost four of the six games during that time.
The interceptions, of which Mahomes added another last week, have been particularly concerning. Operating in an offense that features wide receivers who can't regularly separate and an apparently declining Travis Kelce has forced Mahomes to make riskier throws over the course of the season, leading to the 14 interceptions he has thrown in 15 games so far.
As highlighted very frequently in this article series, his interception prop market refuses to budge and reflects the grim reality of Mahomes' tendency to turn the ball over through the air. Despite having thrown an interception in 11 of the Chiefs' 15 games thus far, he can still be found near even odds to throw one this Sunday.
Sure, we have continued to drive home these points and suggest this same bet week after week but sometimes the best bets week to week aren't the ones that are most creative, but the ones that offer the most value. And until these markets correct themselves, we'll keep attacking it.
Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 at bet365)
Patrick Mahomes Week 17 same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
Rashee Rice Over 63.5 receiving yards
Justin Watson Over 20.5 receiving yards
Another player's market we've been focusing on more recently is Rashee Rice's. The second-round rookie has seen his role grow in recent weeks as the rest of the receiver corps has disappointed Andy Reid, and the added opportunities have materialized into substantial production.
After failing to eclipse a 70% per-game snap share through his first 12 games, Rice has now seen snap shares of 85%, 90%, and 75% in the last three weeks. He has 31 targets during that span, a target count he failed to reach to start the season until Week 7.
He has turned those targets into a per-game average of 7.3 receptions for 73.3 yards and has a pair of touchdowns across those three games. After falling noticeably below his closing total last week of 70.5, his market has settled back in the 63.5 range and we'll take advantage.
Another receiver seeing more opportunity lately is Justin Watson, who is coming off a four-reception game for 38 yards. After logging a %0%+ snap share just once through Week 8, Watson has now hit that mark in eight straight games.
And with the continued struggles of Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Watson is also starting to see more targets come his way. After logging just four targets from Week 12 to Week 14, he now has nine targets in the last two weeks and has logged 30+ receiving yards in each of those contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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