Patrick Mahomes didn't have the greatest Week 14, with the Kansas City Chiefs dropping their second straight game after a controversial Kadarius Toney penalty. They will try to correct their course in the Week 15 odds with a road game against the lowly New England Patriots, who are the subject of rumors suggesting that they will move on from Bill Belichick by season's end.
Can Mahomes & Co. get things back on track in what should be a projected blowout? Or will it be another week of pedestrian performances for this worrying Chiefs offense?
Continue reading for analysis of the Patrick Mahomes odds in our free NFL picks and predictions for the Chiefs vs. Patriots Week 15 matchup on Sunday, December 17.
Patrick Mahomes Week 15 prop picks
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Patrick Mahomes Week 15 prop pick
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
Patrick Mahomes' struggles this year had flown a little under the radar over the course of the season simply because the Chiefs were still putting up wins. No one is going to question a 6-1 start, or even a slight stumble to either 7-2 or 8-3.
But after two primetime losses in a row that were paired with subpar offensive performances, the Chiefs' offensive shortcomings have been under a massive magnifying glass. The Chiefs' receivers are unreliable both in terms of generating separation and the simpler parts of the position (not dropping balls, lining up onsides, etc).
The lack of a go-to receiving option outside of Travis Kelce has forced Mahomes into making tighter and riskier throws, and the interceptions have come flowing in as a result. Mahomes' 2.3% interception rate this year is the worst of his full-time starting career.
Despite that, his interception market continues to be priced like prime box score Mahomes. Despite now throwing 11 interceptions in 13 games, you can typically find him to throw an interception at near-even odds. There's clearly a massive disconnect there, and we'll continue to hammer it until that market corrects.
Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions (+100 at DraftKings)
Patrick Mahomes Week 15 same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
Travis Kelce Under 66.5 receiving yards
Rashee Rice Over 54.5 receiving yards
Kelce hasn't had a bad year by any stretch, but it is a disappointing one compared to years prior. He hasn't eclipsed 100 yards (a wild standard for most tight ends, but an appropriate one for Kelce) in six straight games and he has done it just twice this year.
Sunday may not be any different in that regard, as the Patriots present a tough matchup on that front. Their 4.2 receptions allowed per game to opposing tight ends is tied for eighth-fewest and their 38.4 receiving yards allowed per game is fifth-fewest.
If Kelce is held in check, we may see more involvement from rookie wideout Rashee Rice. The second-round receiver out of SMU has been reliable when called upon this season, and those calls have been coming more frequently as of late.
In his last three games he has averaged 7.7 receptions on 9.7 targets for 81 yards. That includes his first career 100-yard game three weeks ago against the Raiders. He also is seeing increased route participation, logging 68% or higher in those three weeks after logging above 60% just twice through Week 11. And last week he logged a season-high route run rate of 82%.
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