Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs enter the season looking to reestablish themselves atop the AFC West, with the two-time MVP targeting a September return after suffering a devastating ACL tear late in the 2025 campaign.
While there’s still no official timetable for Patrick Mahomes’ return, the superstar joins new Minnesota Vikings signal-caller Kyler Murray among the early favorites in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds.
Here are the latest NFL odds as we build toward Week 1.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Player | Position |  |
|---|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes |
QB | +150 |
 Kyler Murray |
QB | +550 |
 Micah Parsons |
Edge | +1000 |
 Malik Nabers |
WR | +1000 |
 Daniel Jones |
QB | +1600 |
 Nick Bosa |
DE | +1900 |
| Fred Warner |
LB | +1900 |
| Tucker Kraft |
TE | +2500 |
| George Kittle |
TE | +2500 |
| Cam Skattebo |
RB | +2700 |
Odds as of 5-12-2026. Odds from FanDuel, one of our best betting apps. Sign up with our FanDuel promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.
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NFL Comeback Player of the Year opening odds
Here is a look at the opening odds for NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Patrick Mahomes (+150) opened as the betting favorite.
- Patrick Mahomes (+150)
- Kyler Murray (+550)
- Micah Parsons (+1000)
- Malik Nabers (+1000)
- Daniel Jones (+1600)
- Nick Bosa (+1900)
- Fred Warner (+1900)
- Tucker Kraft (+2500)
- George Kittle (+2500)
- Travis Hunter (+2700)
- Cam Skattebo (+2700)
- Brock Bowers (+3000)
- Garrett Wilson (+3300)
- Trey Hendrickson (+3500)
- Sam LaPorta (+4000)
- Geno Smith (+4000)
- Quinshon Judkins (+4000)
- Malik Willis (+4000)
- Tua Tagovailoa (+4000)
NFL Comeback Player of the Year prediction
Concussion history aside, Tua Tagovailoa will really benefit from a change of scenery.
Heading into a one-year contract with the Atlanta Falcons, the former fifth overall pick will have a leg up on Michael Penix Jr. in training camp, as Penix continues to recover from the partially torn ACL he suffered a year ago.
Tua spent three consecutive years from 2022–2024 leading the league in either passer rating, passing yards, or completion percentage, and landing in an offense featuring Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts could give the Falcons quarterback production similar to his best days under Mike McDaniel.
Tagovailoa will also escape the cold conditions of the AFC East, no longer having to play in Buffalo or Foxborough, instead spending half his time indoors at home in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, along with favorable environments in New Orleans and Tampa Bay.
If anything, Tagovailoa should feel like he's back in his SEC college days.
CPOY Pick: Tua Tagovailoa (+4000 at FanDuel)
Popular NFL futures markets
NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends
• Over the last eight years, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award has gone to a quarterback seven times.
• From 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year, and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation.
• Joe Burrow joins Chad Pennington (2006 and 2008) as the only player to win this award twice.
Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners
| Year | NFL CPOY winner | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow |  Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2023 | Joe Flacco |  Cleveland Browns |
| 2022 | Geno Smith |  Seattle Seahawks |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2020 | Alex Smith |  Washington Commanders |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill |  Tennessee Titans |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck |  Indianapolis Colts |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen |  Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson |  Green Bay Packers |
| 2015 | Eric Berry |  Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2014 | Rob Gronkowski |  New England Patriots |
| 2013 | Philip Rivers | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2012 | Peyton Manning |  Denver Broncos |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford |  Detroit Lions |
| 2010 | Michael Vick |  Philadelphia Eagles |
Comeback Player of the Year Odds FAQs
Quarterbacks have won CPOY in seven of the last 10 years.
Patrick Mahomes (+150) is the current favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
