Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the prohibitive favorite in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds following his return from a devastating ACL tear suffered at the end of the 2025-26 campaign.
Mahomes made his season debut on Monday Night Football, while fellow contender Kyler Murray saw his Vikings debut cut short by an early injury in Week 1.
Meanwhile, an intriguing new candidate is climbing up the board: Aaron Donald, who came out of retirement to join the Los Angeles Rams on a one-year contract worth up to $30 million.
Let's look at the latest NFL odds as we enter Week 2.
- Key Takeaways:
- Can Mahomes recapture his elite form?
- Murray's Vikings debut cut short
- Donald seeks Hollywood sequel
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Player Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes |
48% |
 Malik Nabers |
9% |
 Aaron Donald |
6% |
 Daniel Jones |
6% |
| Malik Nabers |
6% |
 Fred Warner |
6% |
 Joe Burrow |
4% |
 Micah Parsons |
4% |
| Tucker Kraft |
4% |
| Nick Bosa |
3% |
Odds as of 9-15. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts — including NFL futures — to get $35!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
NFL Comeback Player of the Year favorites
Kansas City Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes returned Monday night from a torn ACL and LCL after his first losing season as an NFL starter.
The two-time MVP was largely conservative given Kenneth Walker III's breakout debut, completing only 15 of 27 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns while adding 23 rushing yards and a rushing score. However, his 15-yard touchdown run to open the scoring also flashed the mobility that has made him so difficult to defend.
HE'S BAAAAACK
— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2026
DENvsKC on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Ew5xE6qhMy
Kyler Murray's concussion in the first quarter of Week 1 caused his odds to drop from 15% to 2%, and it's reportedly unlikely that the Minnesota Vikings QB will be ready to return in Week 2. Carson Wentz also played well in relief during the Vikings' comeback win over Green Bay, giving Kevin O'Connell little reason to rush Murray back.
Players to watch
Aaron Donald, 
Los Angeles Rams
Although he didn't travel or suit up for the Week 1 opener in Melbourne, three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald has come out of retirement to rejoin the Los Angeles Rams, the preseason Super Bowl odds favorites. Donald is currently given a 6% probability at Kalshi to win the award, but should he even be eligible?
The CPOY guidelines were recently codified following Joe Flacco's "Comeback from Sucking" in 2023-24.
"The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season."
A voluntary retirement by Donald certainly wouldn't fit those criteria, but it might not stop voters from casting their ballots for No. 99 anyway. Our Brad Senkiw looked at how sportsbooks are handling the confusion surrounding Donald's Comeback Player of the Year eligibility.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year futures predictions
The most intriguing challenger is Kyler Murray, who gets a fresh start with the Minnesota Vikings after playing just five games in 2025. He’ll be playing under QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell, who helped completely transform Sam Darnold during his time with the Vikings.
If O’Connell can help Murray rediscover that level of play, the former No. 1 overall pick should emerge as Mahomes’ biggest challenger.
Jon Metler's NFL Futures Fund offers another pick in the Comeback Player of the Year market.
| Pick | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kyler Murray |
15% | Aug. 1 | 2.5 |
Popular NFL futures markets
NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends
• Over the last eight years, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award has gone to a quarterback seven times.
• From 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year, and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation.
• Joe Burrow joins Chad Pennington (2006 and 2008) as the only player to win this award twice.
Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners
Here's a look at the recent award history (preseason favorite and winner odds courtesy of Sports Odds History):
| Year | NFL CPOY winner | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2025 | Joe Burrow |  Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | Joe Flacco |  Cleveland Browns |
| 2023 | Geno Smith |  Seattle Seahawks |
| 2022 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2021 | Alex Smith |  Washington Commanders |
| 2020 | Ryan Tannehill |  Tennessee Titans |
| 2019 | Andrew Luck |  Indianapolis Colts |
| 2018 | Keenan Allen |  Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2017 | Jordy Nelson |  Green Bay Packers |
Comeback Player of the Year Odds FAQs
Quarterbacks have won CPOY in seven of the last 10 years.
Patrick Mahomes is the current favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
