Injuries have already started to take a toll on several teams, but even with Brock Purdy and George Kittle sidelined, a dominant San Francisco defense has me bullish on the 49ers ahead of their home opener against the Arizona Cardinals.
Here are my NFL picks with moneyline odds and selections for every game on the Week 3 schedule.
Week 3 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Dolphins vs  Bills |
-850 |
 Colts vs  Titans |
-205 |
 Steelers vs  Patriots |
-130 |
 Jets vs  Buccaneers |
-320 |
 Raiders vs  Commanders |
-186 |
 Rams vs  Eagles |
-190 |
 Falcons vs  Panthers |
-250 |
 Bengals vs  Vikings |
-144 |
 Texans vs  Jaguars |
+104 |
 Packers vs  Browns |
-430 |
 Broncos vs  Chargers |
-154 |
 Saints vs  Seahawks |
-390 |
 Cardinals vs  49ers |
-120 |
 Cowboys vs  Bears |
-108 |
 Chiefs vs  Giants |
-270 |
 Lions vs  Ravens |
+205 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel.
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Expert Week 3 NFL moneyline picks
Dolphins vs. Bills: Bills (-850)
It's only a matter of time before Mike McDaniel is fired, and a blowout loss in Buffalo will further accelerate that timeline.
Colts vs. Titans: Colts (-205)
Daniel Jones has thrived early on in Shane Steichen's system, and Indy should be ready to pound the ball and control time of possession with Jonathan Taylor.
The Colts’ defense needs corner Charvarius Ward back quickly, but the Titans’ passing attack does little to inspire confidence.
Steelers vs. Patriots: Steelers (-130)
New England barely scraped by Miami, and the Patriots' home loss to Las Vegas looks even worse following the Raiders' disastrous showing on MNF.
This one won’t be pretty, but that’s just the way Mike Tomlin likes it. Pittsburgh prevails on a late field goal in Foxborough.
Jets vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-320)
Baker Mayfield continues to turn it on in the fourth quarter, while Justin Fields and the Jets offense could barely move the chains against Buffalo last week. Things won't get any easier with Tyrod Taylor under center.
Tampa Bay starts the season 3-0 for the first time since 2005.
Raiders vs. Commanders: Commanders (-186)
All the excitement over Las Vegas came to a screeching halt against the Chargers.
Although Jayden Daniels is expected to be sidelined for this one, Marcus Mariota is familiar enough with the playbook to keep the Washington offense competent, and the Commanders’ front four is set to go to town on a porous Raiders O-line.
Rams vs. Eagles: Eagles (-190)
We could finally see Jalen Hurts air it out this week, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both due for breakout games against a weak Rams secondary that will be without CB1 Ahkello Witherspoon.
The Eagles' first two wins haven't been pretty, but Philly will pull away against Los Angeles.
Falcons vs. Panthers: Falcons (-250)
Atlanta's defense was buzzing last week against J.J. McCarthy, generating six team sacks.
Expect a similar output against Carolina’s offense, who, aside from Tetairoa McMillan, provide little threat.
Bengals vs. Vikings: Vikings (-144)
Kevin O'Connell knows Jake Browning inside and out from his time as a Vikings backup, and even Carson Wentz is an upgrade over J.J. McCarthy at this point.
I’ll take Brian Flores’ defense over whatever the hell the Bengals are rolling out. Gimme Minny at home.
Texans vs. Jaguars: Texans (+104)
Houston managed to choke another lead in Week 2 — this time against Tampa Bay — but I’m willing to overlook that against Jacksonville.
The Texans swept the season series against the Jaguars last year, limiting Trevor Lawrence to a combined passer rating of 51.0.
Packers vs. Browns: Packers (-430)
If Micah Parsons and the Green Bay pass rush were able to cause fits for Detroit and Washington, just imagine what they’ll do against Joe Flacco and the Browns.
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Broncos vs. Chargers: Chargers (-154)
Denver's defense was gashed by Indy last week, while LAC looks extremely strong on both sides of the ball.
Justin Herbert won both head-to-head matchups against the Broncos last year, so I'll take him to improve to 3-0 in the Madison Beer era.
Saints vs. Seahawks: Seahawks (-390)
Blowout alert!
Seattle's defense completely shut down Pittsburgh last week, and that was despite both star CB Devon Witherspoon and safety Nick Emmanwori being sidelined with injuries.
In front of the loudest crowd in football, the Seahawks are going to pounce on Spencer Rattler from the jump.
Cardinals vs. 49ers: 49ers (-120)
Arizona didn’t look impressive against either New Orleans or Carolina, and until Kyler Murray & Co. break out, I’ll back Robert Saleh’s defense to do the heavy lifting and keep the 49ers undefeated.
Cowboys vs. Bears: Cowboys (-108)
Has Dak Prescott become... underrated?
Ben Johnson already looks like he regrets taking the Bears job, and Caleb Williams isn't doing any favors for his sanity. The Cowboys may not be a stable franchise, but compared to Chicago, they seem like the Bill Belichick Patriots.
Dallas grinds out a road win in the Windy City.
Chiefs vs. Giants: Chiefs (-270)
Russell Wilson and Malik Nabers will get theirs, but Kansas City isn’t starting the season 0-3 — not against a Giants defense that just gave up 40 points to Dallas.
Lions vs. Ravens: Lions (+205)
Detroit proved last week that it's still an offensive juggernaut, and with the Ravens expected to be without pass rusher Kyle Van Noy. I’ll take a flier on the Lions to pull off the primetime upset.
My 2025 NFL ATS record is 22-10 for +5.65 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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