Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 2: Shaheed Burns Panthers Secondary

25-plus receiving yards

Opportunity can be worth its weight in gold in the prop market, and that's the case with Green Bay fifth-round rookie receiver Dontayvion Wicks. Although he went catchless in his debut for the Packers, he led all receivers with 37 snaps, which were five more than the next. He ran 18 routes in a game with a very positive game script and was targeted on 11% of those routes. 

When everyone is healthy, Wicks is an afterthought, but with Christian Watson looking doubtful again, Romeo Dobbs possibly on a snap count, and Aaron Jones (14% target share) very questionable, the Packers could be playing a much tighter game and have to distribute the ball in the passing game. 

It’s an indoor game in Atlanta, which is always great as sometimes the environment isn’t as priced in as it should be and Wicks has a very modest 11.5-yard total. He finished with a 10-yard aDOT performance in Week 1. 

With Jessie Bates likely giving more attention to Romeo Dobbs after a two-TD game, Wicks could easily top his receiving yard total on one grab making his 25-plus yard mileston at +235 a 0.9-unit play and his 50-plus at +1025 a 0.2-unit play. 

Dontayvion Wicks prop: 25-plus yards (+235 at bet365) (0.9 units)

100-plus rushing yards

CJ Stroud popped up on the Friday injury report with a shoulder injury and is questionable for Sunday’s match vs. the Colts. A late add to the injury report does not bode well for the rookie’s participation Sunday in a game the Texans can win and might see their best game script of the season.

With Case Keenum or Davis Mills possible under center, the Texans will likely ask running back Dameon Pierce to keep things tight. Pierce had just 38 yards on 11 carries in Week 1 vs. a very good Baltimore defense, but Stroud’s talents also took some carries away from the sophomore, who had five games of 90-plus rushing yards in 13 contests last year before an injury sidelined him.

The matchup is there for starting back, too. Indy finished Week 1 with the No.29 DVOA defense, ranked 26th in success rate vs. the run, and Travis Etienne had 77 rushing yards with one of the weakest offensive lines in football. The Texans don’t have the best rush O-line in town but adding Shaq Mason (an elite run blocker) has made this a better line than a season ago when Pierce finished 11th in evaded tackles in only 13 games. 

The best-case scenario for Pierce to hit the century mark is Stroud sitting and him getting the bulk of the work over Devin Singletary. His rushing total is on the rise and as of Saturday, is sitting at 56.5 yards. That puts his 75-plus yards at +220 and 100-plus at +625. For comparison, FanDuel has Pierce alt-Over rushing 100-plus yards at +390. I’ll say it again, shop around and have outs. 

Dameon Pierce prop: 100-plus rushing yards (+625 at bet365) (0.5 units)

75-plus receiving yards

Rashid Shaheed entered last week with a receiving total of 35.5 yards and went on to post a 5/89/1 line vs. the Titans who had become healthier in the secondary. This wasn’t enough for books to move his prop totals as his receiving total for the week is still at a similar 35.5 yards. Just for comparison, Shaheed and the Saints faced the Panthers in Week 18 last year and the receiver had a prop total of 55.5 receiving yards.

Over his last seven games dating back to last season, the efficient receiver is averaging 3.9 catches (on 4.6 targets) for a healthy 66.6 yards per game. That’s an 85% catch rate for a guy who has a double-digit aDOT over that stretch.

Shaheed ran as the No. 3 wideout last week and played just 35 snaps to Michael Thomas and Chris Olave’s 50, but the second-year receiver ran 30 routes on those 35 snaps and was targeted on 20% of those routes ran. The speedster doesn't need big volume to get big yards. 

Derek Carr looked good in his debut, completing 70% of his passes, and now the New Orleans passing attack faces a Carolina secondary that will be without starting corner Jaycee Horn. Shaheed lined up outside in 12 of his 35 snaps and could see slot corner CJ Henderson, who Pro Football Focus has graded at 48.7. 

Considering the lack of adjustment on his receiving total and high efficiency, I’m taking Shaheed 75-plus at +475 and not getting greedy with his 100-plus at +1,225. The WR has gained 75-plus yards in four of his last seven games. I know I said Sunday games, but this is looking like a solid prime-time milestone opportunity. 

Rashid Shaheed prop: 75-plus receiving yards (+475 at bet365) (0.5 units)