AFC North Predictions, Odds & NFL Best Picks for 2026

The AFC North is packed with fresh faces and concepts after three of the four teams underwent changes at head coach and coordinator.
 
That leaves an aura of mystery in the division, and those unknowns offer opportunity in the prediction markets. 

My NFL picks dig deep into Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, highlighting the edges to play on or against these AFC North clubs during the 2026 NFL season.

AFC North best picks for 2026

Pick	Probability
Bengals  Win AFC North - Yes	34%
Ravens 11+ Wins - Yes	58%
Derrick Henry 1,500+ Rushing Yards - Yes	57%
Bengals 11+ Wins - Yes	49%
Joe Burrow NFL MVP - Yes	11%
Browns 6+ Wins - No	57%
Shedeur Sanders 1,500+ Passing Yards - Yes	62%
Steelers 9+ Wins - No	57%
Aaron Rodgers 3,500+ Passing Yards - Yes	40%

Read on for Jason's full analysis and AFC North breakdown! 

Start trading with Kalshi today!

Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including NFL futures!

Sign Up Now at

*Eligible U.S. locations only

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

AFC North odds for 2026

To win	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Super Bowl	7%	5%	1%	2%
Conference	13%	9%	1%	3%
Division	47%	34%	3%	19%
Make Playoffs	71%	62%	12%	38%

Best futures play: Bengals to win AFC North - Yes (34% probability)

AFC North breakdown

Baltimore Ravens: Learning to fly

The Baltimore Ravens’ revamped sideline gets an absolute gem of a starting schedule. New head coach Jesse Minter and OC Declan Doyle get to slowly slide into the 2026 campaign, with the Ravens laying -3.5 or more in four of their first five games.

I’ll be treading lightly with their spreads during this transition phase. Baltimore gets to iron out the wrinkles on both sides of the ball before things get hairy from Week 7 onward.

Minter’s defense is bolstered by solid additions, including LB Trey Hendrickson. He’ll create chaos for a stop unit that couldn’t cook up pressure in 2025.

Doyle’s attack will play bully ball up front, with plenty of 12 and 13 personnel plowing the way for RB Derrick Henry. Lamar Jackson will rely on shorter passes and play-action to keep him upright and healthy behind an offensive line ranking in the back third of the league.

Best Ravens play: 11+ Wins - Yes (58% probability)

Cincinnati Bengals: They'reeeeeee great!

A healthy Joe Burrow and that receiving corps make the Cincinnati Bengals a dangerous team every Sunday. It’s one reason why the Bengals are underdogs only twice in their 17 look-ahead lines.

Well, that and a plush schedule that has Cincinnati facing a ton of mid-to-bottom tier opponents. The 2026 win total sits at 10.5 O/U, and making sure those victories are also ATS paydays isn’t solely on the air attack.

The Bengals defense is going all in this year, with significant additions at every level. The secondary got extra attention after Cincy was sliced and diced for the third most passes of 20+ yards and the 29th worst EPA allowed per play.

The success of the offensive line will also get a say, especially considering Burrow’s made of tissue paper. Continuity is there from a group that improved in the back half of 2025.

If the protection can pick up where it left off, the Bengals are Super Bowl contenders.

Best Bengals play: 11+ Wins - Yes (49% probability)

Cleveland Browns: Road rash

We all know the Cleveland Browns are crap. That’s why look-ahead lines have them as dogs in 15 of 17 games (faves vs. Las Vegas and Atlanta in cold weather contests).

But thanks to one of the easiest 2026 slates, oddsmakers can only go so far with those spreads. Cleveland is getting six or more points just five times, compared to 15 games as 6+ pups over the previous two seasons (6-9 ATS). 

A road-heavy schedule opens the Todd Monken era, with the Browns hitting the highway for six of their first nine outings. That starts with two swampy trips to Florida (Bucs and Jags) to battle the heat and humidity.

Deshaun Watson gets the nod at QB, but that seems like a sacrifice to the football gods, considering how bad this O-line is. Even with an elite defense — despite losing Myles Garrett — I’m looking to fade Cleveland early and often before those spreads swell up.

Best Browns play: 6+ Wins - No (57% probability)

Pittsburgh Steelers: Playing it safe

I’m worried about the Pittsburgh Steelers defense in 2026. Mike Tomlin’s exit puts the stop unit under new DC Patrick Graham. He plays it safe by protecting against deep passes and dialing down the blitzes.

The Steelers were perhaps the only stop unit you could count on to create game-changing plays like sacks and takeaways each season. It’s what’s kept them competitive (and profitable) in the post-Roethlisberger years.

Oddsmakers are on the fence about the Steelers, as 11 of their 17 look-ahead lines are a FG or less (-3 to +3). Can a less dangerous defense keep them covering?

In a twist, Pittsburgh’s offense may be a strength in 2026 — if Aaron Rodgers can keep it together for one last run. The skill positions got an upgrade, and new coach Mike McCarthy has the best shot of squeezing out whatever is left in A-Rod’s ayahuasca-powered arm. 

Best Steelers play: 9+ Wins - No (57% probability)

My favorite AFC North player props this season

Derrick Henry 1,500+ rushing yards - Yes

57% probability

Game script (Baltimore a fave in 14 games) and Declan Doyle’s new offense provide plenty of touches for Henry, who has crossed the 1,500-yard mark in his first two years with the Ravens. He’s projected for as many as 1,600 in 2026.

Joe Burrow NFL MVP - Yes

11% probability

Drake Maye made an MVP push thanks to a weak schedule in 2025. Burrow follows that same smooth path in 2026, but is a far more talented QB. If Cincy makes good on the oddsmakers’ expectations and wins 11+ games, Burrow is your MVP.

Shedeur Sanders 1,500+ passing yards - Yes

62% probability

Sanders may be starting behind Watson, but that won’t last long. There are some nasty pass rushes showing up during a road-centric start to the season. Whenever he takes over, Sanders will be in pass-positive scenarios with the Browns set as dogs most weeks.

Aaron Rodgers 3,500+ passing yards - Yes

40% probability

Rodgers is going to go out throwing in his final year. The Steelers offense is in a better place in 2026 with a solid group of skill players and McCarthy’s pass-centric schemes. His forecast sits as high as 3,700+ yards.

AFC North trends to know for 2026

• Ravens: The final three years of John Harbaugh’s time in the AFC North turned out a 12-6 Over/Under count in divisional matchups (67% Overs). Jesse Minter may put an end to that, given Baltimore’s renewed defensive focus and short-yardage attack.
  
  
• Bengals: Cincinnati has lived up to expectations as road chalk since 2020, owning a 16-5 SU and 14-7 ATS mark when laying points in enemy territory. The Bengals are faves in six of their eight true road games (and -5.5 vs. Atlanta in Spain Week 9).
  
  
• Browns: Former Browns coach Kevin Stefanski was roughed up on the road in the AFC North. Cleveland finished 4-14 SU and ATS in divisional roadies since 2020 (22%). Todd Monken’s new squad is +6 at Pittsburgh, +10 at Baltimore, and +7.5 at Cincinnati.
  
  
• Steelers: Light a candle for the greatest NFL underdog coach. Mike Tomlin closed out his storied career in the Steel City with a 63% ATS windfall when getting points. That includes a 29-10-2 ATS clip as a divisional dog (73%). Mike McCarthy is a pup in 10 of his 17 look-ahead lines, including four of Pittsburgh’s six AFC North outings.

AFC North schedule in 2026

Pages related to this topic