The AFC East is a division of extremes in 2026.
Buffalo and New England are among the top AFC title contenders. Miami and New York, on the other hand, are sinking to the muddy bottom of the conference.
While the division has contrasting win totals (10.5 to 4.5), there’s value in between. My AFC East predictions break down the odds for all four teams.
AFC East best picks for 2026
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Bills – Yes AFC East Winner |
55% |
| Bills - Yes Playoffs |
78% |
| Josh Allen – Yes 25+ Passing TDs |
85% |
 Dolphins - No 4+ wins |
48% |
| De’Von Achane - No 6+ Rushing TDs |
56% |
 Jets - Yes 6+ Wins |
56% |
| Breece Hall – Yes 6+ Rushing TDs |
60% |
 Patriots - No 10+ wins |
42% |
| Drake Maye – No 4,000+ Passing Yards |
71% |
Read on for Jason's full analysis and AFC East breakdown!
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AFC East odds for 2026
| To win | Bills |
Dolphins |
Jets |
Patriots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl | 8% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Conference | 15% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Division | 55% | 3% | 4% | 40% |
| Make Playoffs | 77% | 6% | 11% | 65% |
Best futures play: Buffalo – Yes AFC East Winner (55% probability)AFC East breakdown
Buffalo Bills: Overs in Orchard Park
The Buffalo Bills gave underachieving coach Sean McDermott his walking papers, promoting offensive coordinator Joe Brady to the big job in hopes of continuing his success with the Bills attack. Buffalo will need all the points it can get considering the overhauled defense under new DC Jim Leonhard (going to a 3-4 scheme) and a schedule stocked with quality foes. I see the Bills as a potential Over play, at least early on.
Buffalo gets tested out of the gates, facing Houston, Detroit, the L.A. Chargers, New England and the L.A. Rams before the leaves fall. While the Bills are faves in four of those five games, all spreads fall within a field goal (-3 to +3). The home stretch has Buffalo on the road in four of five games (including Xmas Day), taking away that new stadium smell at the most important time, before a layup versus the Jets in Week 18.
Best Bills play: Yes Playoffs (78% probability)Miami Dolphins: Things are bleak in South Beach
The Miami Dolphins are in contention to be the worst team in 2026 (23% at Kalshi), and their look-ahead spreads echo that despair, getting points in all but one game (-1.5 vs. Jets Week 12). A new head coach, talent-thin roster, unproven QB, and one of the toughest schedules in the land have the Fins getting six or more points in 13 of those showings.
The rose among the weeds is RB De'Von Achane. New coach Jeff Hafley joked Achane would get 40 carries a game, which isn’t that funny when you look at the Miami offense. Bobby Slowik’s plans preach balance, but the Dolphins can’t afford to run the ball when their defense won’t stop teams from piling up the points. Too much is going to fall on QB Malik Willis and the worst receiving corps in football.
Best Dolphins play: No 4+ wins (48% probability)New York Jets: We have liftoff
The New York Jets could be a sneaky good ATS play in 2026. Yeah, I said it. Gang Green has winnable games sprinkled between big underdog spreads, getting six or more points in eight of their 13 outings as pups. They also find the AFC East heavyweights in tough situational spots. Head coach Aaron Glenn is now calling plays on defense with a front seven looking far more dangerous than last year’s unit that couldn't create game-changing plays like sacks and takeaways.
Veteran QB Geno Smith is the key to any profits. New York’s offense has excellent weapons at the skill positions and new OC Frank Reich is a good fit, with his system not asking Geno to do too much. The 2025 Jets were 29th in EPA per play with a horrible 44.7% TD rate inside the red zone. Reich has historically been efficient inside the 20-yard line during this pro career.
Best Jets play: Yes 6+ Wins (56% probability)New England Patriots: Headed for a hangover?
The New England Patriots have all the tell-tale signs of a Super Bowl hangover. New England was 7-3 SU in one-score games during a cushy 2025 sked littered with listless rivals QBs, then got gifted advantageous matchups in the AFC playoffs. We’ll know if the 2026 Pats are for real in the first month, taking on Seattle, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Buffalo.
New England’s offensive line needs to improve from the 21 sacks allowed in four postseason games or QB Drake Maye won’t live long enough to take advantage of new toys A.J. Browns and Romeo Doubs. The post-bye slate is no cakewalk either, with postseason contenders and primetime games all over the place.
Best Patriots play: No 10+ wins (42% probability)My favorite AFC East player props this season
Josh Allen – Yes 25+ Passing TDs New
Allen passed for 25 TDs in 2025 and scrambled for 14 more, due in part to a lack of passing targets. Joe Brady wants to open up the air attack with guys like D.J. Moore, which means Allen doesn’t have to call his own number as much. Projections sit as high as 30 TD throws.
De’Von Achane – No 6+ Rushing TDs
Season-long projections for Achane range from five to seven rushing touchdowns. If he’s going to go Over six TDs, the Fins running back will likely need to break some big plays. He’s just as potent a pass catcher, so his scoring could get spread between the ground and the air.
Breece Hall – Yes 6+ Rushing TDs
The Jets have a capable playcaller in Reich, who has a nose for the end zone. Hall rushed for only four touchdowns last year, but 2026 forecasts call for as many as eight TD runs as this New York offense will be improved.
Drake Maye – No 4,000+ Passing Yards
Maye amassed almost 4,400 passing yards last season, with a soft schedule allowing New England the fifth most TOP and a surplus of explosive plays. The 2026 schedule isn’t as generous and the final four games are cold weather outdoor contests – not conducive to big passing numbers.
AFC East trends to know for 2026
- Bills: Under former coach Sean McDermott, the Bills were strong out of the blocks. Buffalo was 20-7 SU and 17-9-1 ATS in the opening three weeks since 2017. Joe Brady has his hands full early, facing Houston, Detroit and the L.A. Chargers.
- Dolphins: Miami was a dud as a road underdog under former coach Mike McDaniel, going a collective 8-14 ATS when getting points away from home since 2022. The new-look Dolphins draw an average spread of +8 as a visitor in 2026.
- Jets: Aaron Glenn couldn’t snap the Jets’ AFC East woes in his first season as head coach, with New York finishing 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS versus the AFC East. That makes Gang Green 6-24 SU and 9-20-1 ATS (32%) in divisional matchups since 2021.
- Patriots: Since 2000, teams that lost in the Super Bowl are 12-14 SU with a 7-19 ATS mark in Week 1 of the following season. New England visits Seattle for a Wednesday season opener, getting +3.5.
AFC East schedule in 2026
| Week (Time ET) | Road | Home |
|---|---|---|
| Week 4 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Patriots | Bills |
| Week 6 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Jets | Patriots |
| Week 7 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Dolphins | Jets |
| Week 8 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Patriots | Dolphins |
| Week 10 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Bills | Jets |
| Week 11 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Dolphins | Bills |
| Week 12 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Jets | Dolphins |
| Week 13 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Bills | Patriots |
| Week 16 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Patriots | Jets |
| Week 17 (Sun 1 p.m.) | Bills | Dolphins |
| Week 18 (TBD) | Jets | Bills |
| Week 18 (TBD) | Dolphins | Patriots |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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