The Baltimore Ravens had a long break for Thanksgiving after last playing on November 16. Now they get a prime-time matchup on Sunday Night Football in Inglewood, CA against the struggling Los Angeles Chargers.
The Ravens are slight favorites in Week 12 odds and will be looking to move to 9-3 on the season before their bye week behind the play of Lamar Jackson.
Lamar Jackson SNF prop picks
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Lamar Jackson SNF prop pick
Over 231.5 passing yards (-115)
After a little bit of a slow start to the season for Lamar Jackson and this Baltimore Ravens offense, they have really picked it up over the last five weeks. They averaged 22.2 points and 194.3 passing yards per game in the first six weeks but bumped those averages to 34.2 points and 232.0 passing yards per contest.
Now they get a Los Angeles Chargers defense that ranks 31st in total yards allowed, 32nd in passing yards allowed, 24th in passing touchdowns allowed, and 26th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Every single QB has gone over their season average against the Chargers and that includes the likes of Ryan Tannehill and Zach Wilson, who both went over Jackson’s total in this game.
The closest signal caller to not hitting their average was Prescott, who had 272 yards passing despite a 266.8 per-game average.
Jackson is getting a low total here because his season average is only 221.9 per game. However, we must consider the defense in this game, and everyone eats against the Chargers. When Jackson has played poor pass defenses, he has had his best passing yardage numbers.
Jackson averaged 250.5 yards through the air in his two games against the Bengals (27th in passing yards allowed), 236 yards against the Steelers (23rd), and 357 yards against the Lions (17th). This will be overall another level as the Chargers allow 43.5 more passing yards per game than the worst pass defense that Jackson has faced thus far this season.
The game script should also help Jackson in this scenario. The Ravens are only three-point favorites, and the total is set at a high number of 48.5. Los Angeles needs a win to keep its season afloat and should create more need for Baltimore to throw the ball. I love the Jackson Over on passing yards here.
Prop: Over 231.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Lamar Jackson SNF same-game parlay
I believe the Ravens will win this game against the bad defense, so I'm adding in the moneyline to match with my best bet.
Finally, I'm finishing off this parlay with Baltimore's team total. I mentioned how it has averaged more than 30 points per game over the last five weeks. Well, the Chargers have allowed 30.4 points per game to teams ranked in the Top 16 in total offense. The Ravens rank seventh in total offense.
Not intended for use in MA.
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